Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1115 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE CWA. SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN THE DRIER AIR. UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH -20 TO -22 AT
500 MB. BASED ON LATE MORNING TEMPS WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
70 IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL SET UP
STRONG LAPSE RATES AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST SO LOWERED POPS TO 30 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND 40 IN THE NORTH WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE.
WITH LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE DO NOT THINK ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL BE VERY GREAT SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL MAY LAST A LITTLE PAST 00Z
BUT SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ALSO MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD PASS OUT OF THE CWA EARLY TONIGHT. JUST WENT WITH MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING.
RAISED MAXES TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH AND NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 70
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS MAY END UP A LITTLE HIGH IN
MANY AREAS BUT WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE HIGH SIDE.
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.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS. COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF HAIL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS TODAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES OFF TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND ON OUT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK RIDGE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS CONT TO INDC ANOTHER CDFNT WL PUSH ACRS AR EARLY IN THE PD
AND STALL OUT JUST S OF AR THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS GOING
WITH FROPA PER GOING FCST DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER UPPER SYS
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACRS SRN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN
AN OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT FOR AR. SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT SYS...SO HAVE KEPT
SCTD POPS IN THE FCST FOR NOW. LATEST GFS RUN IS SHOWING LINGERING
RAIN CHCS INTO MON AS UPPER LOW SLOLY DEPARTS TO THE E. WITH LIMITED
TIME TO LOOK AT REST OF LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIG CHGS TO DAY 7 ATTM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  48  57  41 /  40  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       53  42  47  41 /  60  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  45  60  42 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     65  49  59  43 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  44  45  38 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  49  61  45 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         60  50  55  41 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  44  60  42 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  45  56  41 /  50  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...32 / LONG TERM....44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231100-
INDEPENDENCE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-IZARD-NEWTON-SEARCY-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-
JEFFERSON-STONE-HOT SPRING-GRANT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-GARLAND-CLEVELAND-
DALLAS-CALHOUN-OUACHITA-DESHA-LINCOLN-LOGAN-BRADLEY-SALINE-BAXTER-
MARION-SHARP-FULTON-BOONE-MONTGOMERY-POLK-JACKSON-CLEBURNE-
VAN BUREN-POPE-PIKE-PULASKI-MONROE-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-DREW-ARKANSAS-
CLARK-JOHNSON-
1045 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...ALLOWING MORE
SURFACE HEATING. THIS HEATING WILL INTERACT WITH THE TWO
SYSTEMS...AND ALLOW FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG...AND A FEW MAY
EVEN REACH SEVERE LIMITS. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

THE DIFFERENCE IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WARM AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS MAY PRODUCE
A FEW OF WHAT ARE KNOWN AS COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS. WHILE THESE MAY
TAKE ON THE APPEARANCE OF A TORNADO...THESE RARELY REACH THE
GROUND. IF ONE WERE TO REACH THE GROUND...IT WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF LASTING ONLY A FEW MINUTES...AND IT WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE TO
NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...SO ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO ARKANSAS...RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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