Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Little Rock, AR

000
WWUS54 KLZK 220544
SVSLZK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

ARC125-220600-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-050322T0600Z/
SALINE AR-
1144 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST FOR
CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY...

AT 1144 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR KENTUCKY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BRYANT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. PREPARE FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH
AND VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. MOVE TO A BASEMENT... STORM SHELTER...
OR INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3468 9280 3469 9254 3467 9244 3462 9243
      3460 9258 3459 9260 3459 9269 3458 9271
      3458 9278

$$


56

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PACKAGE ON THE WAY THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME GETTING GOING ACROSS THE CWA AS CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAVE HELPED DIMINISH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. LAPS DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STABLE COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LIFTED INDICES
ABOVE ZERO EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.

LATEST LZK SOUNDING NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH NO
SOUNDING AVAILABLE FROM SHV TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WARM FRONT STILL
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND IS STILL BEING FORECAST TO
ONLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS STILL BEING MONITORED AND LAST SEVERAL SCANS HAVE
SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CENTRAL SECTIONS AS JET STREAK APPROACHES
FROM TEXAS AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
H5 TROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS ALL BUT COME TO A CRAWL OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

UPDATE WILL BE TO TONE DOWN SEVERE THREAT AND ADJUST POPS BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. TWEAKING WILL ALSO BE DONE TO TEMPERATURE AND
WIND GRIDS TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE.

QUICK LOOK AT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE
AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS GENERATE LARGE CAPE VALUES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  /ISSUED 307 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005/...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WET PATTERN ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND STRONG H5 TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED COOL
TODAY. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS IF WARM
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THOSE SECTIONS AS WARMER AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. UNQUALIFIED POPS FOR THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
DECREASING. MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. BEST
POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SMALL HAIL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT
REGARDING FEATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIODS. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1045 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT...JUST CREEP SLOWLY NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATES WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A SOLID LINE AND PUSH EAST. THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOS. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
WEST AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A SECONDARY LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
DIMINISHING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS. SOME
OF THE STORMS OVER NORTH ARKANSAS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

PERSONS ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 7 PM TONIGHT AND 1
AM TUESDAY.

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