Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
305 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE TIME BEING. THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SURFACE LOW IS NEAR ST.
LOUIS AND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND 00Z TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP STILL THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN A RATHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD
SUPPORT HAIL DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY. BUT
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WILL JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PREIP IN FOR TUESDAY AND
CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BIG UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND STRONG UPPER TROF IN THE EAST WILL
DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. WENT WITH SMALL POPS IN
THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AND KEEP NORTHERN SECTIONS DRY.
WENT DRY AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AS AIR LOOKS DRIER AND NO
SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING THE AREA AT THOSE TIMES. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MINS A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING IN THE
NORTH AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...MAXES GENERALLY IN
THE 40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH WITH MINOR DAILY
FLUCTUATIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    56  71  47  62 /  40  30  10  20
HARRISON AR       48  62  40  55 /  20  20  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  73  47  64 /  40  20  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     58  73  48  64 /  40  40  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  61  40  55 /  30  30  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     60  75  50  66 /  40  40  10  20
SEARCY AR         54  68  46  60 /  40  40  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      56  72  47  65 /  40  20  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  66  44  60 /  30  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 600 PM
CST SUNDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...
ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047...ARZ0  52>057...ARZ062>069.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
815 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS BROKE UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND TEMPERATURES WARMED IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
MOISTURE LEVELS WERE RATHER LOW AT GROUND LEVEL...BUT MOISTURE
INCREASED AS EVENING APPROACHED. THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE
DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

THE STORMS WERE MOSTLY ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...OR IN AREAS NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE AND
NEWPORT. FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE FRONT...STORMS WILL TEND TO
BE MORE ISOLATED AND LESS ORGANIZED...WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.

PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WATCH
OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE FRONT...WHEN INTERACTING WITH
SEVERAL SYSTEMS ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...AND IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY. THUS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY
RAINS...AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY.

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