Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Little Rock, AR

February 21, 2005Clark County, Hot Spring County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Feb 21, 2005, 6:06 AM CST for Clark County, Hot Spring County, Arkansas. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Feb 21, 2005, 6:06 AM CST (12:06 UTC)
Expired: Feb 21, 2005, 6:45 AM CST
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Clark County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 294 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1442 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 572 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 2.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Feb 21, 2:50 AM CST, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 2:50 AM CST, 3 hours 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
COMPLEX PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE FORECAST IS A
CHALLENGING ONE AT THAT. OUTCOME WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS STILL CREEPING INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. BOUNDARY IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
PROGRESSING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HELPED OUT BY VORT
MAXES MOVING ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AR IN THE MEAN FLOW.

FRONT/S PROGRESSION OVER THE AREA WILL BE SLOW...WITH THE SYSTEM
LIKELY NOT MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEFORE SUNDOWN.
THUS...BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES COULD BE PRETTY HIGH IN
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. FRONT WILL HIT STRONG H5 RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
GULF...AND WILL STALL OUT BY TONIGHT...INVOF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD ACT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TODAY.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS IN THE MEAN FLOW...INTERACTING
WITH THE BOUNDARY. HEATING OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
UPLIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BY THEN...SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE DOWN INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. H5
RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...ALLOWING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF COAST. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY...BUT
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE.

MOS NUMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...VARIATIONS NOT ONLY IN CLOUD COVER...BUT THE POSITION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD POSSIBLY WREAK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS
MORNING. OVERALL PATTERN OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND EASTERN CONUS
TROFFING STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
RESULTANT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AREA BASICALLY IN
BETWEEN THE VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND MORE BENIGN SOUTHERN
STREAM. WITH NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS...DECIDED
TO GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE PATTERN WILL
BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH KEEPING THE AREA IN A
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK. DRY AND COOL FORECAST EXPECTED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    73  47  64  45 /  20  10  20  30
HARRISON AR       63  41  59  36 /  30  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  47  66  45 /  10  10  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     75  47  66  45 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  41  59  35 /  40  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     77  49  67  48 /  20  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         69  46  63  42 /  30  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      76  47  67  44 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  44  63  41 /  20  10  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER 57 / LONG TERM FORECASTER 56

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 21, 5:00 AM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 21, 12:10 AM CST, 5 hours 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1210 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             OMAHA                   36.46N 93.19W
02/20/2005  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1020 PM     HAIL             ROSE BUD                35.33N 92.08W
02/20/2005  E1.00 INCH       WHITE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1023 PM     HAIL             ATKINS                  35.24N 92.95W
02/20/2005  E0.75 INCH       POPE               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

1035 PM     HAIL             2 N BENTON              34.60N 92.58W
02/20/2005  E1.75 INCH       SALINE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1050 PM     HAIL             SOLGOHACHIA             35.25N 92.68W
02/20/2005  E0.75 INCH       CONWAY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

46

Local storm report, Feb 21, 2:17 AM CST, 3 hours 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
217 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     HAIL             GUY                     35.32N 92.33W
02/20/2005  E0.88 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

46

Local storm report, Feb 21, 4:52 AM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 21, 5:00 AM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Feb 21, 5:01 AM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 21, 5:51 AM CST, 15 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 20, 8:46 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Boone	49 min
Feb 20, 9:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan	38 min
Feb 20, 9:48 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Faulkner	27 min
Feb 20, 10:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	White	65 min
Feb 20, 10:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Pope	30 min
Feb 20, 10:27 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Saline	48 min
Feb 20, 10:30 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway	45 min
Feb 20, 10:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Faulkner	48 min
Feb 20, 11:34 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	White	41 min
Feb 21, 12:15 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Jackson, Woodruff	30 min
Feb 21, 2:23 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Newton	52 min
Feb 21, 2:56 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Pope, Searcy	64 min
Feb 21, 3:11 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Baxter, Marion	49 min
Feb 21, 3:30 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Stone, Van Buren	60 min
Feb 21, 3:36 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Izard	39 min
Feb 21, 3:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Faulkner, Independence, Sharp	61 min
Feb 21, 4:30 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	White	60 min
Feb 21, 5:16 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Jackson, Monroe, Prairie, Woodruff	59 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.