Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
RESIDUAL MESOSCALE BNDRYS...ALONG WITH AFTN HEATING AND AN UPPER
SHRTWV TROF WORKING INTO AR...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WDLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LVL WV SHIFTING E OF THE AREA.

LTL OVERALL CHANGE IS NOTED WITH THE FCST DURG THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS CONT TO INDC A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID-SOUTH. A SERIES
OF WEAK SHRTWVS WL CONT LIFTING TO THE NW OF THE AREA. NO SIG FNTL
BNDRYS ARE FCST TO AFFECT THE FA THRU THE SHORT TERM. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WARMTH RMNG IN PLACE ACRS THE STATE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...CANNOT RULE OUT SCTD CONVECTION FORMING DURING THE LATE
MRNG/EARLY AFTN HRS AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FIXED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM/SOMEWHAT HUMID
CONDITIONS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY...IS SOME INDICATION THAT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
TRAVEL AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH...AND MAY END UP PRETTY CLOSE TO
ARKANSAS. FOR NOW...APPEARS THAT SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHICH WILL NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL PICTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD BE EAST
OF THE TRACK.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH SYSTEM CAREFULLY. IF IT MOVES FARTHER WEST THAN
CURRENT THINKING...COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT. FOR THE MOST
PART...IT WOULD BE MUCH NEEDED RAIN GIVEN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
THAT EXIST AT THE MOMENT.

AFTER SYSTEM GOES BY...LOOKS LIKE RIDGE IN SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN A
BIT...WITH NEW TROUGH DEEPENING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SHOULD
THIS HAPPEN...RIDGE WOULD BUILD OVER ARKANSAS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD MIDWEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

44/46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
625 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE
AGAIN...ISOLATED STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE. ALSO...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN COULD OCCUR WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE
PERIOD. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

38/29