Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FEW STORMS DVLPD ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS SRN MO AND NRN AR DURG THE
PAST FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS ALSO FORMED OVR WRN AR AS
MCV CONTS MOVG NEWD FROM ERN OK. WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS PRIOR TO ZN
ISSUANCE BEFORE FINALIZING POPS FOR THIS EVENING....BUT EXPECT TO
RUN WITH CHC POPS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS. BULK OF ACTIVITY WL
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

RAIN CHCS THRU THE SHORT TERM WL CONT TO BE DETERMINED MAINLY BY
MESOSCALE FEATURES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL RMN
MAINLY DIURNAL. MODELS INDC THAT LTL CHG IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS PROGGED TO PERSIST VCNTY
THE MS RVR. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR THE ERN ZNS THRU
THU...WITH SLGT CHC NOTED ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.
RAINFREE LOCATIONS WL CONT TO SEE THE WARMEST READINGS DURG THE
DAY...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE THE CNTRL AR COUNTIES. MOS
TEMPS STILL LOOK AT TAD COOL FOR HIGHS...BUT MIN READINGS LOOK GOOD
THRU THE PD.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVER ARKANSAS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE ARKANSAS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC. GENERALLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
WITH LOW POPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE POPS A BIT
HIGHER IN THE EAST. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

44/51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTE AT THIS TIME.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE
PERIOD. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

38/29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
857 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARIS                   35.29N 93.72W
06/06/2005                   LOGAN              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUBIACO                 35.30N 93.64W
06/06/2005                   LOGAN              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARIS                   35.29N 93.72W
06/06/2005                   LOGAN              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN TOWN

0505 PM     HAIL             6 W LEAD HILL           36.41N 93.01W
06/06/2005  0.75 INCH        BOONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0659 PM     HAIL             1 NW SPARKMAN           33.93N 92.86W
06/06/2005  1.75 INCH        DALLAS             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

46