Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH TO NEAR A LEVELLAND TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH
LINE WHILE DRYLINE HAS MIXED EASTWARD ALONG A MIDLAND TO LUBBOCK
TO PLAINVIEW LINE. STILL CAPPED NEAR TRIPLE POINT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPANDING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. STRONG 300-500 MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR AND ALLOW FOR STORM ROTATION
ENHANCING UPDRAFTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH ALREADY MODERATE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S. ALL OF THIS SPELLS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH
STORMS QUICKLY TAKING ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH MID LEVEL
MESOS. FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
AND INCREASE TORNADO POTENTIAL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
A POSSIBILITY. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NM AND WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES
BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. RIDGE IS PROGGED BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY RISING HEIGHTS AGAIN OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK. THUS VERY LOW POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  82  59  87 /  50  30  20  10
TULIA         60  81  59  86 /  60  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  82  62  85 /  60  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     62  84  62  86 /  50  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       62  83  65  87 /  50  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    63  87  63  90 /  50  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     63  82  67  89 /  60  30  20  10
SPUR          64  86  67  88 /  60  50  40  10
ASPERMONT     69  87  69  91 /  50  50  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

06/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NWS AMARILLO TX
1145 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

TXZ021>044-151645-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1145 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SILVERTON TO LUBBOCK TO POST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST COAST LATER TODAY WITH A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LYING ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
GRADUALLY BECOMING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FLOODING

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TWO TO FOUR INCH TOTALS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT CAUSING
LOCAL EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STALLED OR SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SW PADUCAH           33.91N 100.43W
09/14/2005                   COTTLE             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
527 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SW PADUCAH           33.91N 100.43W
09/14/2005  71 MPH           COTTLE             TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY TEXAS TECH WEST TEXAS MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUMONT                  33.80N 100.52W
09/14/2005                   KING               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
603 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             15 S PADUCAH            33.80N 100.30W
09/14/2005  1.00 INCH        KING               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             10 WSW CLAIREMONT       33.11N 100.91W
09/14/2005  1.75 INCH        KENT               TX   PUBLIC

&&