Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH TO NEAR A LEVELLAND TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH
LINE WHILE DRYLINE HAS MIXED EASTWARD ALONG A MIDLAND TO LUBBOCK
TO PLAINVIEW LINE. STILL CAPPED NEAR TRIPLE POINT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPANDING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. STRONG 300-500 MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR AND ALLOW FOR STORM ROTATION
ENHANCING UPDRAFTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH ALREADY MODERATE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S. ALL OF THIS SPELLS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH
STORMS QUICKLY TAKING ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH MID LEVEL
MESOS. FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
AND INCREASE TORNADO POTENTIAL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
A POSSIBILITY. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NM AND WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES
BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. RIDGE IS PROGGED BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY RISING HEIGHTS AGAIN OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK. THUS VERY LOW POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  82  59  87 /  50  30  20  10
TULIA         60  81  59  86 /  60  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  82  62  85 /  60  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     62  84  62  86 /  50  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       62  83  65  87 /  50  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    63  87  63  90 /  50  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     63  82  67  89 /  60  30  20  10
SPUR          64  86  67  88 /  60  50  40  10
ASPERMONT     69  87  69  91 /  50  50  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

06/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NWS AMARILLO TX
1145 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

TXZ021>044-151645-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1145 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SILVERTON TO LUBBOCK TO POST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST COAST LATER TODAY WITH A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LYING ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
GRADUALLY BECOMING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FLOODING

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TWO TO FOUR INCH TOTALS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT CAUSING
LOCAL EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STALLED OR SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

TXC075-101-107-125-169-263-269-345-433-150300-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 790 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST TEXAS

COTTLE                CROSBY                DICKENS
GARZA                 KENT                  KING
MOTLEY                STONEWALL

IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

CHILDRESS

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ASPERMONT...CHILDRESS...CROSBYTON...
DICKENS...GUTHRIE...JAYTON...MATADOR...PADUCAH...POST...RALLS...
ROARING SPRINGS AND SPUR.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>