Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST MON FEB 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL AS WINTER STORM
WARNING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. PVA ROTATING
ONSHORE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND CONFIRMS LATEST NAM
INITIALIZATION. RADAR INDICATED MODERATE RAIN RATES OVER THE COASTAL
SLOPES MOVING EAST AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. PRESENT SPEED OF PVA AND
RAIN WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ON THE SOUTHERN LIMIT OF THE FEATURE WAS LESS ORGANIZED EXTENDING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. MOISTURE GRADIENT IN
WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR 34/125 WILL MOVE EAST AT APPROXIMATELY 30 KT
AND ENHANCE RAIN RATES OVER THE BIGHT. BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL END LATER THIS
EVENING AS FEATURE MOVES ASHORE. MORE ENERGY FARTHER UPSTREAM NEAR
36/130 WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE ASHORE OVER THE LA BASIN OVERNIGHT
AND SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 10 TO 20 INCHES ABOVE
5KFT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. HELICITY VALUES
INCREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT TEMPERATURE CURVE STEEPENS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS NEARSHORE WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

.EXTENDED...BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PAC THROUGH PERIOD. AND THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH MON AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

FORWOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PST MON FEB 21 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-221400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
910 AM PST MON FEB 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS OVER THE AREA PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING
STATEMENTS...

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING........SEE WGUS56 KLOX - FFSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WARNING..............SEE WGUS46 KLOX - FLSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD ADVISORY.............SEE WGUS86 KLOX - FLSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.DAY TWO... TUESDAY

LOOK FOR THE LOW CENTER TO STILL BE TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY MORNING
WITH HEAVY RAIN...MORE SNOW...AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ADD TO THE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.DAY THREE THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO OUR EAST AND LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  A MINOR RIDGE
TRIES TO SET UP OVER US ON SATURDAY...SO THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DANIELSON/FORWOOD/BOLDT