Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PST MON FEB 21 2005

...SOUTHLAND STILL UNDER THE GUN FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
   BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET...

.SHORT TERM...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS PRODUCED
HIGH WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SNOW MEASURE IN FEET IN THE
MOUNTAINS IS STILL LOCATED 280 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING. IN 24 HOURS...THE STORM CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY 125 NM WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. IN FACT...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT WE ARE STILL UNDER THE
GUN FOR MORE WIND...RAIN AND SNOW.

IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...OVER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED ALONG
THE SOUTH FACING COASTAL SLOPES FROM WESTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
THROUGH LOS ANGELES COUNTY...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 AND A HALF
INCHES AT OLD MAN MOUNTAIN ON THE BORDER BETWEEN VENTURA AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
MEASURED AT OPIDS CAMP IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. ALONG THE
COASTS...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN BETWEEN 1 AND 1 AND A HALF INCHES
IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. SNOW REPORTS ARE STILL NOT AVAILABLE...BUT WE
ARE EXPECTING NEW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO FEET OR MORE OVERNIGHT
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET.

AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE
OVER THE REGION...BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
ONLY SERVE TO ADD TO THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ON THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO CENTER ON THE VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY LINE.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING AND NUMEROUS MUDSLIDES THAT HAVE
OCCURRED...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING BOTH THE SANTA YNEZ AND
THE SANTA CLARA RIVERS TO FLOOD STAGE LATER TO THIS MORNING. FOR
DETAILS ON RIVER FLOODING...CONSULT THE LAXFLSLOX.

STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS AT SOME
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS GUSTING TO OVER 70 MPH AT CHILAO IN THE SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST GUSTS AT CHILAO WERE DOWN TO 50 MPH.
IN ANY CASE...WITH THE HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...LOOK
FOR BRUTAL WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN VERY GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30S TO 45 MPH. THUS...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH WIND ADVISORIES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE BUT
THE DESERT.

LOOK FOR UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS AND SMALL TORNADOS. PRIME
LOCATIONS WILL BE COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM VENTURA COUNTY SOUTH TO
THE ORANGE COUNTY LINE.

EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING. LOOK FOR THE LOW CENTER TO MOVE TO OUR EAST AND LINGER
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE
SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WE ARE
CAUTIOUSLY DROPPING MENTION OF SHOWERS ON THOSE DAYS...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A MINOR RIDGE TRIES
TO SET UP OVER US ON SATURDAY...SO THE WEEKEND MAY BE DRY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE EXITING LOW AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT SUCH THAT SHOWERS MAY CREEP
BACK INTO THE WEEKEND FORECAST BEFORE THE WEEK IS OVER.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RIVER FLOOD WARNING (LAXFLWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WARNING/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

DANIELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST SUN FEB 20 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-211400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PST SUN FEB 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL CREATE A MULTITUDE OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TODAY...LASTING INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE
STORM WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE 5500 FEET. HEAVIER RAIN
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND SUNSET.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TORRENTIAL FLOODING RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL ROAM THROUGH THE
AREA. HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE 5500 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
BLOW ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

THE SERIOUS WEATHER WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT BUT FLOODING WILL
STILL BE CONCERN AS THE AREA WILL BE DRENCHED. DANGEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ABOVE 5000 FEET.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WHICH WILL PROLONG THE FLOODING THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT EARLY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RORKE