Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER TONIGHT AN EVEN STRONG SYSTEM LAGGING
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH TOO. ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE IMPULSES IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
KY ON TUESDAY. LATEST SAT AND RADAR DATA SHOW SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF FA LATER TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

ONGOING SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTION OF FA...OF
A DIURNAL MODE AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AND END DURING THE
EARLY NIGHT HOURS.

WILL GO WITH 50 TO 70 PERCENT POPS ACROSS NWRN TWO THIRDS OF FA
ESPCY AFT MIDNIGHT...AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL PRESS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
MAIN FCST PROBLEM BEING JUST HOW FAR SOUTH DOES IF GET BEFORE
STALLING OUT. WILL GO WITH 40 TO 50 PECENT POPS ON TUE.

-AB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF FA BY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM IS
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND ANY REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM AND WILL
USE NAM TIMING TO END SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING THEN BLEND INTO ECMWF
BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING
AS FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF FA. WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

BOTH NAM AND GFS TAKE FRONT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY
ECMWF SHOWING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SHOWERS OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH  MONDAY...FAVOR THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

06Z GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
FASTER AND IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEN 04/00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z
ENSEMBLE MEAN. BOTH MODELS ARE SLOWER TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ECMWF IS FASTER TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT. THE DGEX
ALSO KEEPS THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT WEAKER. THUS HAVE REJECTED THE 06Z
GFS.

WITH ALL MODELS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY. THE ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH LATEST HURRICANE CENTRAL FORECAST TAKING IT
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THEN CURVING TO THE
EAST EARLY SATURDAY. ATTM WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH
INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
THE AREA. IF TROPICAL SYSTEM TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THEN MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  -MBS

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.IN...NONE.
.KY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050830-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK IN-CLARK KY-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HARRISON KY-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON IN-JEFFERSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT IN-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-WASHINGTON KY-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBANY...BARDSTOWN...BEAVER DAM...
BOWLING GREEN...CAMPBELLSVILLE...COLUMBIA...CORYDON...CYNTHIANA...
DANVILLE...ELIZABETHTOWN...ENGLISH...FRANKFORT...FRANKLIN...
GEORGETOWN...GLASGOW...HARDINSBURG...HARRODSBURG...JAMESTOWN...
JASPER...JEFFERSONVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...LEITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...
LOUISVILLE...MADISON...MOUNT WASHINGTON...MUNFORDVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...PARIS...RICHMOND...RUSSELLVILLE...SCOTTSVILLE...
SHELBYVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...STANFORD...TAYLORSVILLE...TELL CITY...
TOMPKINSVILLE...VERSAILLES...WINCHESTER
1 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS TONIGHT
MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY HOWEVER SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA.

AB