Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

...UPDATED TO REMOVE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
OF COURSE IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE IS ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXTRAPOLATING THESE STORMS FORWARD IN TIME THEY SHOULD
EXIT THE LMK CWFA AROUND 23Z WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BETWEEN
00Z AND 02Z. ONCE THE STORMS ARE OVER...QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND
TAKE UP RESIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A TROF IN THE
EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...GIVING US NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
PATTERN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW IN LATE MAY. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY
WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY THAN WHAT WEVE
BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

VARIOUS SMALL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THEY ROTATE
AROUND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ON/PQ BORDER (WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY) BUT RH
WILL BE LACKING ENOUGH THAT WE CAN KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS SHIFTS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN
AT ALL WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP HIGHER CLOUD
AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE EARLY
SATURDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGHS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE WEST COAST. A BLOCKING RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL BRING NORTHERLY UPPER AIR FLOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL BRING QUITE PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING NORTH WINDS AND DRY AIR...WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF KENTUCKY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.IN...NONE.
.KY...SVA 480 SHELBY...HENRY... FRANKLIN...SCOTT...HARRISON TIL 23Z.
SVA 482 TIL 00Z FOR REMAINDER OF KY COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM ELIZABETHTOWN TO RUSSELLVILLE.

&&

13/DENMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-150830-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK IN-CLARK KY-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HARRISON KY-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON IN-JEFFERSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT IN-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-WASHINGTON KY-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBANY...BARDSTOWN...BEAVER DAM...
BOWLING GREEN...CAMPBELLSVILLE...COLUMBIA...CORYDON...CYNTHIANA...
DANVILLE...ELIZABETHTOWN...ENGLISH...FRANKFORT...FRANKLIN...
GEORGETOWN...GLASGOW...HARDINSBURG...HARRODSBURG...JAMESTOWN...
JASPER...JEFFERSONVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...LEITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...
LOUISVILLE...MADISON...MOUNT WASHINGTON...MUNFORDVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...PARIS...RICHMOND...RUSSELLVILLE...SCOTTSVILLE...
SHELBYVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...STANFORD...TAYLORSVILLE...TELL
CITY...TOMPKINSVILLE...VERSAILLES...WINCHESTER
1250 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND THAT PART OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CORYDON TO FRANKFORT
TO CYNTHIANA. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE
THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 700 PM EDT (600 PM EST/CDT).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

13

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