Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
137 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.UPDATE...
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AND SOTRMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE
OVER SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN RESPONSE FROM LOUISVILLE NORTH AND EAST...AND LMK WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

13

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

CONVECTION OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IL/IN IS CURRENTLY MOVING
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
MO WITH EASTWARD-SURGING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN KENTUCKY BORDER.
WOULD EXPECT LATTER BOUNDARY TO MIX OUT TOWARD MORNING...WITH COLD
FRONT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.

AS FAR AS INSTABILITY GOES...NAM AND GFS SHOW LOADED-GUN SOUNDINGS
FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY. WITH
NEAR 90 DEGREE TEMPS AND LOW 70 DEWS...MODELS ARE GENERATING MLCAPE
VALUES OF OVER 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGEST SHEAR AND
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WOULD EXPECT
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA AND BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
LOCAL AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATES 71 AND 65 AND EASTWARD...WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER WESTERN CWA. OVERALL HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
ONLY SMALL CHANCES IN GRIDS TODAY GIVEN THAT RH FIELDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER ALONG FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
BLUEGRASS REGION AND EASTERN CWA TOWARD EVENING. IF ANY STORMS DO
GENERATE ALONG THE FRONT...THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND ABOUT 30-35
KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WOULD LIKELY FORM A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
AGAIN...BEST THREAT FOR THIS WOULD BE OVER FAR EASTERN REGIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH NAM BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS.
HOWEVER...WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST AND CORRESPONDING COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT REALLY HAVE EFFECT ON REGION UNTIL THURSDAY.
NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE THIS SECONDARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CWA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF WITH THESE FEATURES AS WELL. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD CLOUDY SKIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES...BUT DID NOT SEEM SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS.

MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ENTER REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. WITH
DRY AIR...TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO RISE ENOUGH SO THAT MOST
LOCATIONS WOULD REACH UPPER 70S...SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE. BUT THE
DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL
COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S...WHICH
IS A BLEND OF THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER NAM.

AL

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...WILL CONT TO FOLLOW THE 00Z
GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE CONUS U.S. RESULTING IN A
COOL/DRY PERIOD LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH KY IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
BEST CHC OF ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE FRI AFTN/EVE AS UPR LO REACHES PA
AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATES THRU. ASCTD
WEAK SFC TROF PROGGED THRU THE FA FRI AFTN/EVE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE CURRENT DRY FCST AS IS
ATTM. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF TROF WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N. FCST TEMPS CONSISTENT
WITH GFS MOS...NO CHANGES.

DK

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.IN...NONE.
.KY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-150830-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK IN-CLARK KY-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HARRISON KY-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON IN-JEFFERSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT IN-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-WASHINGTON KY-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBANY...BARDSTOWN...BEAVER DAM...
BOWLING GREEN...CAMPBELLSVILLE...COLUMBIA...CORYDON...CYNTHIANA...
DANVILLE...ELIZABETHTOWN...ENGLISH...FRANKFORT...FRANKLIN...
GEORGETOWN...GLASGOW...HARDINSBURG...HARRODSBURG...JAMESTOWN...
JASPER...JEFFERSONVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...LEITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...
LOUISVILLE...MADISON...MOUNT WASHINGTON...MUNFORDVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...PARIS...RICHMOND...RUSSELLVILLE...SCOTTSVILLE...
SHELBYVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...STANFORD...TAYLORSVILLE...TELL
CITY...TOMPKINSVILLE...VERSAILLES...WINCHESTER
1250 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND THAT PART OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CORYDON TO FRANKFORT
TO CYNTHIANA. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE
THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 700 PM EDT (600 PM EST/CDT).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

13

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              38.37N 85.98W
06/14/2005                   FLOYD              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

SAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MULDRAUGH               37.93N 86.00W
06/14/2005                   MEADE              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

SAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
224 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              38.37N 85.98W
06/14/2005                   FLOYD              IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE TOPS AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN. PEA SIZE HAIL
            WAS ALSO REPORTED BY A STORM SPOTTER IN BORDEN.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
229 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESTNUT GROVE          38.30N 85.27W
06/14/2005                   SHELBY             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN.

&&

SAEDE