Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
604 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED ZONES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

410 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE LOW OVER IL WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ESE
ACROSS NORTHER PORTION OF JKL FA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN VCTY OF THE WARM FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS MOST OF KY. NAM/GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THIS
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TO THE ESE. IT SHOULD CROSS THE JKL AREA DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. UNTIL THAT TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE FCST. MID-LEVEL S/W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING EARLY FRIDAY. BDRY LAYER FORCING IS
RATHER WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT ANY FORCING WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO TRIGGER IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SCATTERED
SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH MO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATER FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF GTLAKES SHORTWAVE MONDAY...NW UPR FLOW
CONTINUES AND SHRA LINGERS IN COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MON INTO EARLY TUES..BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALLOWS TEMPS TO
MODERATE SOME. GFS LR SIMILAR TO ECMWF BEYOND 00Z TUE...WTH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD. MORE ZONAL
PATTERN MOVES IN BY VERY LATE IN PERIOD...WTH POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
TOWARD VERY END OF PERIOD...AS ANOTHER GTLAKES S/WV PUSHES
THROUGH BEGINNING ON FRI.

1137 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-LEVEL S/W ENERGY WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING
OBSERVED TO BE VERY WEAK SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BDRY THAT IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA. BDRY LAYER
FORCING INCREASES SOMEWHAT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS KEEPING
THE INCREASED THREAT OF T-STORM POTENTIAL. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES WARRANTED.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY OUT.

536 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

LATEST IR SHOT SHOWS PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE
AREA. 9Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE SFC LOW IS IN MINNESOTA.

GFS AND NAM BOTH INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE SHORT TERM. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES...SO MOSTLY LEANED
TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE NEAR TERM.

SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT POPS TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TODAY TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...AS A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A MCS MOVING OUT OF ILLINOIS WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE AREA...LEFT CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR TONIGHT.

SPC HAS PLACED THE COUNTIES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 80 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 1. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE THREATS. LOOKING AT THE
SOUNDINGS...BEST CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE IN ANY BOW ECHOS
THAT DEVELOP. SEE SPC/S DAY 1 DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAIL. WILL ALSO
MENTION THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO.

POPS WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY..AS THE UPPER
TROF MOVES OUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TOMORROW. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT
WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE IN GREAT SHAPE. GENERALLY ONLY MADE
A FEW TWEAKS IN THE GRIDS. FOR TODAY...WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER FWC
AND MAV NUMBERS. MAV NUMBERS LOOKED FOR THE REST OF THE NEAR
TERM...SO GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE.

1001 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2005

NE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STAVE OFF PLAINS LOW PRESSURE THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NE CWA TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE W. DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OF THE
COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NE WHERE THE DRIER AIR IS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...WILL INCLUDE A
SHELTERED RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND PULL THE SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS ATMOSPHERE ISNT MOISTENING UP THAT
QUICKLY. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTROM WATCH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR:
KYZ044-050>052
KYZ058>060-069-104-106>109-111-112-114-116
KYZ068-079-080-083>086

&&

RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
544 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-201100-
BATH-BELL-BREATHITT-CLAY-ELLIOTT-ESTILL-FLEMING-FLOYD-HARLAN-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-KNOTT-KNOX-LAUREL-LEE-LESLIE-LETCHER-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
MCCREARY-MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWSLEY-PERRY-PIKE-POWELL-PULASKI-
ROCKCASTLE-ROWAN-WAYNE-WHITLEY-WOLFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
544 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 80 IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HPC HAS ALSO PLACED PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING
AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S MANCHESTER          37.11N 83.77W
05/19/2005                   CLAY               KY   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE...WRIST SIZE LIMBS DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 11.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
545 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             PINE RIDGE              37.76N 83.61W
05/19/2005  0.75 INCH        WOLFE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

ARICHEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
549 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             SALT LICK               38.12N 83.62W
05/19/2005  0.75 INCH        BATH               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

ARICHEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
742 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             PAINTSVILLE             37.82N 82.81W
05/19/2005  1.00 INCH        JOHNSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

HYSELL