Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS...PHASING WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PRESSES WESTARD...SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION. END RESULT WILL BE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE (PWATS ABOVE 1.75 INCHES) COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND THE SEA-BREEZE TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WHERE
DYNAMICS WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO SEA-BREEZE/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
COLLISIONS.

HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN WHILE MAINTAINING
AS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CARRIBEAN...THEN IS FORECAST
TO CROSS YUCATAN SUNDAY AND ENTER CAMPECHE BAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. THUS...A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY
COLLIDE.
&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA... MAINTAINING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
ADVANCES INLAND WITH A MORE OFFSHORE FLOW LATE AT NIGHT DUE TO A
LAND BREEZE. SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LOWER TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  93 /  40  50  30  50
SSI  77  88  77  89 /  40  40  20  30
JAX  74  91  74  92 /  50  50  30  40
SGJ  75  88  75  88 /  40  40  20  40
GNV  74  91  74  92 /  40  60  40  50
OCF  73  91  73  92 /  30  60  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ZAPPE
MARINE/FIRE WX...SANDRIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
520 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
520 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEABREEZE COLLISION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...FOCUSED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND INTERSTATE 95. A SECONDARY
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTHWEST OF A DOUGLAS TO BAXLEY LINE IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SANTA FE RIVER NEAR THREE RIVER
ESTATES AND FORT WHITE AS WELL AS ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER NEAR
ATKINSON. PLEASE REFER TO RIVER STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. IN
ADDITION...REPORTS OF LOCALIZED FLOOD ARE REQUESTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
427 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

FLZ037-142115-
PUTNAM-
427 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUTNAM COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 427 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSON...OR ABOUT
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTERLACHEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND JOHNSON...
INTERLACHEN...PUTNAM HALL...MANNVILLE AND HOLLISTER THROUGH 515 PM
EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
439 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

FLZ031-036-142130-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-
439 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA AND
BRADFORD COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 439 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTH OF ORANGE HEIGHTS...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MELROSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WALDO...ORANGE
HEIGHTS...MELROSE...HAMPTON AND STARKE THROUGH 530 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
454 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

FLZ032-142145-
CLAY-
454 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 454 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER LAKE GENEVA...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
NORTH OF MELROSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND LAKE GENEVA THROUGH 545 PM
EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON