Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS...PHASING WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PRESSES WESTARD...SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION. END RESULT WILL BE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE (PWATS ABOVE 1.75 INCHES) COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND THE SEA-BREEZE TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
EACH DAY...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WHERE
DYNAMICS WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO SEA-BREEZE/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
COLLISIONS.

HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN WHILE MAINTAINING
AS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CARRIBEAN...THEN IS FORECAST
TO CROSS YUCATAN SUNDAY AND ENTER CAMPECHE BAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. THUS...A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY
COLLIDE.
&&

.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA... MAINTAINING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
ADVANCES INLAND WITH A MORE OFFSHORE FLOW LATE AT NIGHT DUE TO A
LAND BREEZE. SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LOWER TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  93 /  40  50  30  50
SSI  77  88  77  89 /  40  40  20  30
JAX  74  91  74  92 /  50  50  30  40
SGJ  75  88  75  88 /  40  40  20  40
GNV  74  91  74  92 /  40  60  40  50
OCF  73  91  73  92 /  30  60  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ZAPPE
MARINE/FIRE WX...SANDRIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
520 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
520 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEABREEZE COLLISION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...FOCUSED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND INTERSTATE 95. A SECONDARY
MAXIMUM OF ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTHWEST OF A DOUGLAS TO BAXLEY LINE IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SANTA FE RIVER NEAR THREE RIVER
ESTATES AND FORT WHITE AS WELL AS ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER NEAR
ATKINSON. PLEASE REFER TO RIVER STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. IN
ADDITION...REPORTS OF LOCALIZED FLOOD ARE REQUESTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

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