Tornado Warning 143, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 241539
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

MSC021-063-241615-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0143.000000T0000Z-050924T1615Z/
JEFFERSON MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
1038 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

AT 1035 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF 
HERMANVILLE...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAND GULF...MOVING 
NORTH AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES EAST OF PORT GIBSON BY 1045 AM CDT

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3162 9088 3162 9075 3197 9073 3197 9102

$$

AEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
550 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATING ZONES FOR NEW TORNADO WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 416 AM...
RITA LANDFALL IN THE SWRN CORNER OF LA SHOULD MAKE THIS HURC SEASON
ONE FOR THE RECORDS IN THAT STATE WITH A SECOND CAT.3 IN LESS THAN A
MONTH. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED JUST SW OF OUR CWFA
WITH 2-3 INCH TOTALS NOW CREEPING INTO CATAHOULA/CONCORDIA PARISHES.
LOOK FOR THESE DROUGHT-BUSTING RAINS TO INCREASE UP THE MS RIVER WITH
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WORKING NWD ACROSS NERN LA/WRN MS. WILL
KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SW OF BROOKHAVEN
TO VICKSBURG TO BASTROP AND GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORIES JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES. STRONGEST 925MB
WIND FIELDS OF 50-60KTS WORK NWD THROUGH NERN LA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THEY TURN MORE FROM THE S. THESE WIND FIELDS EXPAND EWD TO I-55 LATE
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO KEPT AS IS HOWEVER WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED NWD FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO INCLUDE THE DELTA REGION
AS RITA MOVES NWD ALONG THE SABINE RIVER AND SLOWS.

SWRN HALF OF CWFA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR TORNADOES IN THE OUTER
BANDS OF RITA AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. ALREADY SEEING STRONG
INDICATIONS OF ROTATING CELLS IN SERN LA AND THESE WILL BE HEADING
INTO SRN MS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TORNADO WATCH POSTED AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SPC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BY TONIGHT...RITA CENTER PROGGED TO APPROACH ARKLATEX REGION AND
SHOULD BE NEARLY STALLING CLOSE TO THE KSHV AREA TOWARD MORNING.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS...STEADY WINDS TONIGHT WITH STILL A
TORNADO RISK FOR MAINLY WRN HALF OF CWFA. RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG AND W
OF THE MS RIVER SHOULD AVERAGE 4-8 INCHES WITH MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY./40/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE
INLAND PATH OF RITA. RITA WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. IT WILL WEAKEN TO A INLAND LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHEN IT MOVES OVER OUR CWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD
FINALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH THE RAINS OUT OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS GFS MODEL
RUN IN MOVING THE REMANTS OF RITA OUT OF THE REGION. IT BRINGS IN THE
DRIER AIR WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS TOO
FAST...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS BRING IT IN ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS MORE
REASONABLE. SO THIS MODEL WAS DISCARDED. THE NAM MODEL STILL KEEPS
RAINS MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
BRINGING THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN...NOGAPS AND CANADIAN SLOWS
THINGS DOWN AND KEEPS SOME RAIN AROUND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP POPS ABOUT THE SAME AND MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT A GREAT DAY FOR AVIATION CONCERNS WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH RITA. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WILL
SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. STRONGER BANDS OF RAIN WILL
PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. EXPECT MOST WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF
090-130 DEGREES THROUGH MIDDAY AND BECOME MORE 130- 160 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY IMPROVEMENTS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE KMEI AND KHBG SITES WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
RETURN./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  76  82  72 / 100  80  90  80
MERIDIAN      83  74  84  69 /  90  70  90  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR MSZ053-MSZ059-MSZ060-
     MSZ061.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR MSZ047-MSZ053-MSZ059-
     MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR
     MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ034-MSZ035-
     MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-
     MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR
     ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
544 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251044-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
544 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A BASTROP LOUISIANA TO CANTON AND MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI
LINE  ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE RITA. THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER 9 PM BUT CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 55.

HURRICANE RITA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. AS IT DOES...STRONG WIND SHEAR IN LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM WILL SPREAD INTO EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SEVERAL STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAVE EXHIBITED SIGNS
OF STRONG ROTATION...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING BEFORE REALLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING EAST OF RITA TO HELP IN
THE PRODUCTION OF TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

...FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA...IT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE REGION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN
BANDS FROM HURRICANE RITA REPEATEDLY MOVE INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY LEAD TO RAPID
RUN OFF AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BASTROP TO CLAYTON
LOUISIANA TO BUDE MISSISSIPPI.

HEAVY RAIN AND PONDING CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAUSING
WATER TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A WIDE AREA WEST OF A
LAUREL TO WINONA LINE. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES FARTHER
NORTH...STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...AND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH OVER EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF A BROOKHAVEN TO VICKSBURG TO BASTROP LINE. THESE TYPE OF WINDS
CAN DOWN SOME TREES AND POWERLINES...AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

SINCE MANY TREES HAVE BEEN WEAKENED AND DAMAGED BY KATRINA...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THESE NEW
WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME LIMBS AND TREES TO BE DOWNED ON PROPERTY AND
 POWERLINES...CAUSING NEW POWER OUTAGES. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT FOR
DEAD LIMBS THAT COULD FALL IF YOU ARE VENTURING OUTDOORS TODAY.

...FIRE DANGER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS
CONTINUES TO EXIST ACCORDING TO THE MISSISSIPPI FORESTRY
COMMISSION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE
NUMEROUS BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS SPIRAL
BANDS FROM RITA MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
BANDS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RISK ON SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON
HOW RAPIDLY RITA WEAKENS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE GREATEST RISK
LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR AS STEADY RAINS
PERSIST TO THE WEST.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
MAINLY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCREASES
DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY AND
PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES MAY BE COMMON OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY MORNING.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME OF A FEW
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS...WHICH COULD EXACERBATE
ANY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WHICH MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS
AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
541 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

LAZ024-026-MSZ060>066-072>074-242200-
CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-ADAMS MS-COVINGTON MS-
FORREST MS-FRANKLIN MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-JONES MS-
LAMAR MS-LAWRENCE MS-LINCOLN MS-MARION MS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED A PORTION OF TORNADO
WATCH 810 AND HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 812 UNTIL 5 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN LOUISIANA THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 2 PARISHES

IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA

CATAHOULA             CONCORDIA

IN MISSISSIPPI THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

JEFFERSON DAVIS       LAWRENCE              LINCOLN
MARION

IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

COVINGTON             FORREST               JONES
LAMAR

IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

ADAMS                 FRANKLIN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BASSFIELD...BROOKHAVEN...BUDE...
COLLINS...COLUMBIA...FERRIDAY...HARRISONBURG...HATTIESBURG...
JONESVILLE...LAUREL...LUMBERTON...MEADVILLE...MONTICELLO...
MOUNT OLIVE...NATCHEZ...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...PURVIS...ROXIE...
VIDALIA...WEST FERRIDAY AND WEST HATTIESBURG.

LAZ007>009-015>016-023-025-MSZ040>059-242200-
EAST CARROLL LA-FRANKLIN LA-MADISON LA-MOREHOUSE LA-
RICHLAND LA-TENSAS LA-WEST CARROLL LA-CLAIBORNE MS-
CLARKE MS-COPIAH MS-HINDS MS-ISSAQUENA MS-JASPER MS-
JEFFERSON MS-KEMPER MS-LAUDERDALE MS-LEAKE MS-
MADISON MS-NESHOBA MS-NEWTON MS-RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-
SHARKEY MS-SIMPSON MS-SMITH MS-WARREN MS-YAZOO MS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 812 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 PARISHES

IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA

EAST CARROLL          FRANKLIN              MADISON
MOREHOUSE             RICHLAND              TENSAS
WEST CARROLL

IN MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 20 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

COPIAH                HINDS                 LEAKE
MADISON               RANKIN                SCOTT
SIMPSON               SMITH                 YAZOO

IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

CLARKE                JASPER                KEMPER
LAUDERDALE            NESHOBA               NEWTON

IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

CLAIBORNE             JEFFERSON

IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

ISSAQUENA             SHARKEY               WARREN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANGUILLA...BASTROP...BAY SPRINGS...
BRANDON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...CONEHATTA...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...
DE KALB...DECATUR...DELHI...EPPS...FAYETTE...FOREST...
HAZLEHURST...HEIDELBERG...JACKSON...LAKE PROVIDENCE...MADISON...
MAGEE...MAYERSVILLE...MENDENHALL...MERIDIAN...MORTON...
NEWELLTON...NEWTON...OAK GROVE...PEARL...PEARL RIVER...
PHILADELPHIA...PORT GIBSON...QUITMAN...RALEIGH...RAYVILLE...
RICHLAND...RIDGELAND...ROLLING FORK...SCOOBA...SHUBUTA...
ST. JOSEPH...STONEWALL...TALLULAH...TAYLORSVILLE...UNION...
VICKSBURG...WATERPROOF...WESSON...WINNSBORO AND YAZOO CITY.

CRAVEN