Tornado Warning 141, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 240948
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
445 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

MSC037-085-241015-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0141.000000T0000Z-050924T1015Z/
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN MS-
445 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 443 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
TORNADO ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF BOGUE CHITTO MOVING NORTHWEST AT 55 
MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL PASS ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCCALL CREEK BY 500 
AM CDT.

ANOTHER TORNADO WAS STILL INDICATED OVER EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY 
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 55 MPH AND WILL PASS EAST OF BUDE.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3137 9083 3137 9041 3160 9060 3161 9102

$$

EEC

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 241008
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

MSC037-085-241015-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0141.000000T0000Z-050924T1015Z/
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN MS-
506 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND EASTERN FRANKLIN 
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 506 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
STORMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TORNADO WARNING HAVE WEAKENED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3137 9083 3137 9041 3160 9060 3161 9102

$$

EEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
RITA LANDFALL IN THE SWRN CORNER OF LA SHOULD MAKE THIS HURC SEASON
ONE FOR THE RECORDS IN THAT STATE WITH A SECOND CAT.3 IN LESS THAN A
MONTH. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED JUST SW OF OUR CWFA WITH
2-3 INCH TOTALS NOW CREEPING INTO CATAHOULA/CONCORDIA PARISHES. LOOK
FOR THESE DROUGHT-BUSTING RAINS TO INCREASE UP THE MS RIVER WITH
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WORKING NWD ACROSS NERN LA/WRN MS. WILL
KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SW OF BROOKHAVEN
TO VICKSBURG TO BASTROP AND GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORIES JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES. STRONGEST 925MB
WIND FIELDS OF 50-60KTS WORK NWD THROUGH NERN LA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THEY TURN MORE FROM THE S. THESE WIND FIELDS EXPAND EWD TO I-55 LATE
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO KEPT AS IS HOWEVER WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED NWD FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO INCLUDE THE DELTA REGION
AS RITA MOVES NWD ALONG THE SABINE RIVER AND SLOWS.

SWRN HALF OF CWFA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR TORNADOES IN THE OUTER
BANDS OF RITA AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. ALREADY SEEING STRONG
INDICATIONS OF ROTATING CELLS IN SERN LA AND THESE WILL BE HEADING
INTO SRN MS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TORNADO WATCH POSTED AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SPC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BY TONIGHT...RITA CENTER PROGGED TO APPROACH ARKLATEX REGION AND
SHOULD BE NEARLY STALLING CLOSE TO THE KSHV AREA TOWARD MORNING.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS...STEADY WINDS TONIGHT WITH STILL A
TORNADO RISK FOR MAINLY WRN HALF OF CWFA. RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG AND W
OF THE MS RIVER SHOULD AVERAGE 4-8 INCHES WITH MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY./40/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE
INLAND PATH OF RITA. RITA WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. IT WILL WEAKEN TO A INLAND LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHEN IT MOVES OVER OUR CWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD
FINALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH THE RAINS OUT OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS GFS MODEL
RUN IN MOVING THE REMANTS OF RITA OUT OF THE REGION. IT BRINGS IN THE
DRIER AIR WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS TOO
FAST...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS BRING IT IN ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS MORE
REASONABLE. SO THIS MODEL WAS DISCARDED. THE NAM MODEL STILL KEEPS
RAINS MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
BRINGING THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN...NOGAPS AND CANADIAN SLOWS
THINGS DOWN AND KEEPS SOME RAIN AROUND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP POPS ABOUT THE SAME AND MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT A GREAT DAY FOR AVIATION CONCERNS WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH RITA. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WILL
SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. STRONGER BANDS OF RAIN WILL
PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. EXPECT MOST WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF
090-130 DEGREES THROUGH MIDDAY AND BECOME MORE 130- 160 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY IMPROVEMENTS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE KMEI AND KHBG SITES WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
RETURN./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  76  82  72 / 100  80  90  80
MERIDIAN      83  74  84  69 /  90  70  90  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR MSZ053-MSZ059-MSZ060-
     MSZ061.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR MSZ047-MSZ053-MSZ059-
     MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR
     MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ034-MSZ035-
     MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-
     MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR
     ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
838 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
242119-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
838 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE RITA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS RITA MOVES INLAND TO OUR WEST...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA...TO
BRANDON...TO MONTICELLO LINE.

DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE
TEXAS...LOUISIANA BORDER LATER TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...STRONG WIND
SHEAR IN LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
STORM WILL SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. SEVERAL STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAVE EXHIBITED SIGNS OF STRONG ROTATION THIS
EVENING...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND DAYTIME HEATING
RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING EAST OF RITA...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF MISSISSIPPI AND OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

...FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA...IT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS AREA. WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE
REGION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN BANDS FROM
HURRICANE RITA MOVE INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MAY APPROACH 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS
MAY LEAD TO RAPID RUN OFF AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
BASTROP TO CLAYTON LOUISIANA TO BUDE MISSISSIPPI.

HEAVY RAIN AND PONDING CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAUSING
WATER TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST LOUISIANA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES INLAND...STRONG
WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. BY SATURDAY MORNING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF A WINNSBORO...TO FAYETTE...TO BUDE LINE. THESE TYPE OF WINDS
CAN DOWN SOME TREES AND POWERLINES...AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...CAN BE
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WEST OF AN INDIANOLA...TO BRANDON...TO LAUREL LINE.
WITH MANY TREES WEAKENED AND DAMAGED BY KATRINA...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE
SOME LIMBS AND TREES TO BE DOWNED ON POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER
OUTAGES.

...FIRE DANGER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS
CONTINUES TO EXIST ACCORDING TO THE MISSISSIPPI FORESTRY
COMMISSION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE
NUMEROUS BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY...AS SPIRAL BANDS FROM HURRICANE RITA MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RISK ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW RAPIDLY
RITA WEAKENS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE GREATEST RISK LOOKS TO BE
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY MORNING.

BURN BANS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD FOR PORTIONS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI...SO THE FIRE DANGER
RISKS WILL CONTINUE.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME OF A FEW
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS...WHICH COULD EXACERBATE
ANY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WHICH MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS
AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.