Severe Thunderstorm Warning 495, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...TWO WEATHER FEATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FIRST IS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT...WHICH REMAINS DRAPED FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
IT HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THE SECOND IS THE COMBINATION OF AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS.  ONCE AGAIN...THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES HAS AIDED IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME.

THE SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DRIFT
WESTWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE KIND OF FLATTENS OUT.  A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL
LIKELY PICK UP THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THIS WEEKEND...DEVELOP THE
WAVE A LITTLE MORE...AND BRING IT ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK.  WITH
REGARD TO THE EXTENT OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT?  IM STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON THAT.  WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING EXPECTED TO
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...I EXPECT THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SELF SUFFICIENT AND A LITTLE
LESS RELIABLE ON DIURNAL TRENDS.

REGARDLESS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TOWARD
THE 2 INCH MARK AGAIN AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST.  THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...FIRST PERIOD RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE BASED
UPON ONGOING RADAR TRENDS.  AFTERNOON LAPS DATA INDICATES A HIGHLY
BUOYANT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.  CAPE
VALUES ARE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 2000 JOULES/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES
LESS THAN -4 DEGREES CELSIUS.  FOR THAT REASON...I HAVE MENTIONED
SOME STRONG STORMS OVER AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55
(INCLUSIVE OF THE METRO).  /#10/

POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IN ITS SLOW MIGRATION WESTWARD. THIS
FEATURE ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ENSURE A GOOD DEAL OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES AFTER MIDDAY
SUNDAY GIVEN THE ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BE IN
PLACE. BUT AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR WILL BE A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD
FURTHER WORK TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIP IN EASTERN ZONES AND
THUS POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER THE ALREADY AGGRESSIVE MAV
GUIDANCE EAST OF I-55 FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE TAPERED DOWN TO
MAXES IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE EAST...BUT WESTERN AREAS SHOULD STILL
GET UP TO AT LEAST AROUND 90 DEGREES BEFORE CONVECTION COOLS THINGS
DOWN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SLOW MOVING STORM CLUSTERS SUNDAY
AND THIS WAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LOW AND LOOSELY ATTACHED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD
CONTINUE THEIR PROGRESS WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH BOTH
ENTITIES WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS. BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY THE CONTROLLING WEATHER REGIME OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD HAVE EVOLVED INTO A FAMILIAR (FOR THIS SUMMER)
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SO...AFTER LOTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ABOUT THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TAPER BACK MAINLY TO THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING VARIETY. THIS TRANSITION WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHS
GETTING UP INTO THE MID 90S AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN THE FROM THE WEST. /BB/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: BUTTS
LONG TERM:  BRYANT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061945-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
245 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55.	THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF
COLUMBUS...MERIDIAN...HATTIESBURG... AND METRO JACKSON.  WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS COMBINED WITH A
MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE
STRONG.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER
SUNSET...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY ALLOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION COULD TRIGGER
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SLOW MOVING COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN SHORT BURSTS AT TIMES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE FIFTY-FIVE CORRIDOR. THESE RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING OF
FRIDAY...AUGUST 12.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

MSZ046-051-052-052015-
KEMPER-LAUDERDALE-NEWTON-
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KEMPER AND LAUDERDALE COUNTY LINE...
NEAR MERIDIAN STATION.  THE CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MILES AN HOUR...AND WILL PASS OVER OKATIBBEE LAKE
AND COLLINSVILLE BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN NEWTON COUNTY.  DATA
SUGGESTS THAT NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
PRODUCED BY THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MILES AN HOUR...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS.

MARINERS ON OKATIBBEE LAKE SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR.  WIND GUSTS
PRODUCED BY THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDITIONS ON
THE LAKE.

FURTHER UPDATES ON THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

BUTTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
327 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIZE                    31.87N 89.55W
08/05/2005                   SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN IN MIZE AND RALEIGH

&&

CAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

MSZ048-049-052301-
HINDS-RANKIN-
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HINDS AND RANKIN
COUNTIES...

AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED TWO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CONVERGING OVER HINDS AND RANKIN COUNTIES. THIS...IN
TURN...WAS TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
MANY OF THESE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AN ISOLATED HERE STORM COULD BRIEFLY
PRODUCE WINDS UP TO SEVERE CRITERIA THROUGH 600 PM.

FURTHER UPDATES ON THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

MSZ048-049-052301-
HINDS-RANKIN-
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HINDS AND RANKIN
COUNTIES...

AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED TWO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CONVERGING OVER HINDS AND RANKIN COUNTIES. THIS...IN
TURN...WAS TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
MANY OF THESE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION...IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AN ISOLATED STORM HERE COULD BRIEFLY
PRODUCE WINDS UP TO SEVERE CRITERIA THROUGH 600 PM.

FURTHER UPDATES ON THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POCAHONTAS              32.47N 90.29W
08/05/2005                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN AT POCAHONTAS ROAD. ONE TREE
            REPORTED DOWN ON COKER CIRCLE ABOUT ONE MILE EAST OF
            HIGHWAY 49. ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON CLINCY ROAD.

0354 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE FLORA              32.54N 90.30W
08/05/2005                   MADISON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LIMBS REPORTED DOWN ABOUT 1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF
            FLORA.

&&

CAL

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