Severe Thunderstorm Warning 488, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 051955
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

MSC051-052005-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0488.000000T0000Z-050805T2030Z/
HOLMES MS-
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HOLMES COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3292 9013 3301 9036 3291 9046 3286 9061
      3272 9050 3279 9033 3285 9025

$$

MSC163-052030-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0488.000000T0000Z-050805T2030Z/
YAZOO MS-
255 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN YAZOO COUNTY...

AT 246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EDEN...OR ABOUT 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF YAZOO CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  YAZOO CITY BY 310 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3292 9013 3301 9036 3291 9046 3286 9061
      3272 9050 3279 9033 3285 9025

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE TEXT FORECAST WILL BE COMING...

.DISCUSSION...MANUAL ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  CLOSER TO HOME...
OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

I EXPECT THE FEATURES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH TIME.  THIS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE FRONT REMAINS JUST
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  ALL THIS SPELLS A GREATER SHOT OF SEEING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR THE MOST PART...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.  I HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS IN THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND/POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.  MOST OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
WERE IN GOOD SHAPE.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET
SHORTLY.  AN UPDATED TEXT FORECAST WILL BE COMING BEFORE 1100 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...NO BIG SURPRISES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE 1800 UTC TAF
PACKAGE.  I WILL ATTEMPT THE TIME FRAME IN WHICH SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0000 UTC.  SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT BE AS
QUICK TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING PROVIDED
BY THE SHEAR/TROUGH COMBINATION PRESENTLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AND I
PLAN ON CONTINUING SOME MENTION OF VCTS/VCSH AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE THAT IN THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE
AS WELL.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BUTTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
522 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061022-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
522 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION COULD TRIGGER SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SLOW MOVING COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN SHORT BURSTS AT TIMES MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN LINE. THESE RAINS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY TO THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING OF
THURSDAY...AUGUST 11.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

MSZ046-051-052-052015-
KEMPER-LAUDERDALE-NEWTON-
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KEMPER AND LAUDERDALE COUNTY LINE...
NEAR MERIDIAN STATION.  THE CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MILES AN HOUR...AND WILL PASS OVER OKATIBBEE LAKE
AND COLLINSVILLE BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN NEWTON COUNTY.  DATA
SUGGESTS THAT NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS BEING
PRODUCED BY THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MILES AN HOUR...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS.

MARINERS ON OKATIBBEE LAKE SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR.  WIND GUSTS
PRODUCED BY THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDITIONS ON
THE LAKE.

FURTHER UPDATES ON THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

BUTTS