Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
214 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE INTO LATE
EVENING HOURS...

.SHORT TERM...NUMEROUS HAIL AND TORNADO REPORTS HAVE COME IN TODAY
THUS FAR. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SLIGHT TREND DEVELOPING IN THE
MODE OF SEVERE. THE FREQUENCY OF TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL
PRODUCING SUPERCELLS IS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. VAD WIND PROFILES OFF
OF THE JACKSON RADAR STILL SHOW A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT THIS TREND MIGHT BE
TEMPORARY. FACTOR THAT IN WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS...HIGH SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY...AND THE SEVERE AND TORNADIC WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MORE OR LESS
ALONG THE RIVER. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE GUN UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. ALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHOSEN TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG WORDING IN THE ZONES
AND IN OTHER PRODUCTS.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY LATE THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION PASSES OVERHEAD. WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN...THUS HELPING TO ENABLE FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE TORNADIC CONCERNS WILL END AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

.LONG TERM...NOT TOO MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. CLOUDS LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY AND UNTIL MIDDAY FRI
BEFORE SKIES FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. SHOWERS WILL FINALLY START
TO END FRIDAY MORNING AS THE THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WITH H9 TEMPS ONLY 9C MID 60S STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO START TO WARM UP QUICKLY WITH LOWER TO MID
70S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP INTO SUN AS SOUTHERLY LL WINDS
BRING IN H85 TEMPS OF 14C BY SUN AFTERNOON.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM COMING IN AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS GETTING STRONGER AND WETTER. WILL CONTINUE
TO BUMP UP THE POPS FOR MON. WILL ALSO STAY AROUND MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT BUT GFS NOW
SHOWING H85 FLOW OF 50+KTS AND ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AXIS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS IS
FIVE AND 6 DAYS OUT BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. SHEAR LOOKS INCREDIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT FRCST
SNDGS SHOW THESE STORMS POSSIBLY ELEVATED. WILL NOW START TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO. LATER FORECAST AND MODEL RUNS WILL START TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  68  54  67 /  40  50  20  10
MERIDIAN      58  70  53  68 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-
     MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ037-MSZ038-
     MSZ039-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-
     MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ062-
     MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
207 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071907-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
207 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. A COMBINATION OF VERY UNSTABLE
AIR...STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND AN APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS

AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED  TO CONTINUE TO BE FOR
HAIL AND TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AND HIGH WINDS AS THE
SECONDARY CONCERN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW...ISOLATED SEVERE (HAIL
PRODUCING) THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

...FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING EAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE...OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE
PERPETUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS  WILL ALLOW FOR ONE TO
THREE MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
MAINLY AREAS EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE
REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  IT IS STILL TO EARLY
TO TELL WHAT IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BUT LATEST MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO GET STRONGER AND WETTER WITH THE SYSTEM.  AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WARM MOIST AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. AT THE
SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEING TO PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NW CARROLLTON        33.61N 90.05W
04/06/2005                   CARROLL            MS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
501 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NW CARROLLTON        33.61N 90.05W
04/06/2005                   CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&

LJW/MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
503 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               33.52N 90.19W
04/06/2005  0.88 INCH        LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LJW/MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
513 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             4 E RUTH                31.38N 90.25W
04/06/2005  1.75 INCH        LAWRENCE           MS   AIRPLANE PILOT

0510 PM     HAIL             RUTH                    31.38N 90.32W
04/06/2005  1.75 INCH        LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
514 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             4 E RUTH                31.38N 90.25W
04/06/2005  1.75 INCH        LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LJW/MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
530 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAGEE                   31.87N 89.73W
04/06/2005                   SIMPSON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

0510 PM     HAIL             PINOLA                  31.88N 89.96W
04/06/2005  0.75 INCH        SIMPSON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DB