Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 070058
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
754 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

MSC065-077-127-070100-
LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-SIMPSON MS-
754 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT FOR 
SIMPSON...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 748 PM CDT...DOPPLE RADAR INDICATED THAT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS 
WOULD MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 PM CDT.  
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN 
MOST AREAS.  

THUS...RENEWED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL HAS 
OCCURRED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.

LAT...LON 3136 9022 3171 9024 3177 8995 3178 9009
      3205 9002 3205 8966 3179 8966 3176 8977
      3162 8977 3153 8960 3145 8958 3145 8980
      3139 8984 3141 9002 3135 9004

$$

CRAVEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
214 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE INTO LATE
EVENING HOURS...

.SHORT TERM...NUMEROUS HAIL AND TORNADO REPORTS HAVE COME IN TODAY
THUS FAR. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SLIGHT TREND DEVELOPING IN THE
MODE OF SEVERE. THE FREQUENCY OF TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL
PRODUCING SUPERCELLS IS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. VAD WIND PROFILES OFF
OF THE JACKSON RADAR STILL SHOW A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT THIS TREND MIGHT BE
TEMPORARY. FACTOR THAT IN WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS...HIGH SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY...AND THE SEVERE AND TORNADIC WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MORE OR LESS
ALONG THE RIVER. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE GUN UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. ALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHOSEN TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG WORDING IN THE ZONES
AND IN OTHER PRODUCTS.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY LATE THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION PASSES OVERHEAD. WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN...THUS HELPING TO ENABLE FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE TORNADIC CONCERNS WILL END AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

.LONG TERM...NOT TOO MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. CLOUDS LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY AND UNTIL MIDDAY FRI
BEFORE SKIES FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. SHOWERS WILL FINALLY START
TO END FRIDAY MORNING AS THE THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WITH H9 TEMPS ONLY 9C MID 60S STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO START TO WARM UP QUICKLY WITH LOWER TO MID
70S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP INTO SUN AS SOUTHERLY LL WINDS
BRING IN H85 TEMPS OF 14C BY SUN AFTERNOON.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM COMING IN AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS GETTING STRONGER AND WETTER. WILL CONTINUE
TO BUMP UP THE POPS FOR MON. WILL ALSO STAY AROUND MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT BUT GFS NOW
SHOWING H85 FLOW OF 50+KTS AND ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AXIS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS IS
FIVE AND 6 DAYS OUT BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. SHEAR LOOKS INCREDIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT FRCST
SNDGS SHOW THESE STORMS POSSIBLY ELEVATED. WILL NOW START TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO. LATER FORECAST AND MODEL RUNS WILL START TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  68  54  67 /  40  50  20  10
MERIDIAN      58  70  53  68 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-
     MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ037-MSZ038-
     MSZ039-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-
     MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ062-
     MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
207 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071907-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
207 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. A COMBINATION OF VERY UNSTABLE
AIR...STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND AN APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS

AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED  TO CONTINUE TO BE FOR
HAIL AND TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AND HIGH WINDS AS THE
SECONDARY CONCERN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW...ISOLATED SEVERE (HAIL
PRODUCING) THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

...FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING EAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE...OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE
PERPETUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS  WILL ALLOW FOR ONE TO
THREE MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
MAINLY AREAS EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE
REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  IT IS STILL TO EARLY
TO TELL WHAT IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BUT LATEST MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO GET STRONGER AND WETTER WITH THE SYSTEM.  AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WARM MOIST AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. AT THE
SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEING TO PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
449 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          UNION                   32.57N 89.12W
04/06/2005                   NEWTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CONFIRMED TORNADO IN UNION. DEBRIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
            AROUND THE CITY OF NEWTON.

&&

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

ARZ074>075-LAZ007>008-015-023>024-062300-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-CATAHOULA LA-FRANKLIN LA-
MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-WEST CARROLL LA-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED TORNADO WATCH 131 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ARKANSAS THIS CANCELS 2 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

ASHLEY                CHICOT

IN LOUISIANA THIS CANCELS 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA

CATAHOULA             FRANKLIN              MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND              WEST CARROLL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINNSBORO...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...
LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...OAK GROVE...EPPS...
JONESVILLE AND HARRISONBURG

LAZ009-016-025>026-MSZ018>019-025>066-072>074-070000-
CONCORDIA LA-EAST CARROLL LA-MADISON LA-TENSAS LA-
ADAMS MS-ATTALA MS-BOLIVAR MS-CARROLL MS-CHOCTAW MS-
CLAIBORNE MS-CLARKE MS-CLAY MS-COPIAH MS-COVINGTON MS-
FORREST MS-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA MS-HINDS MS-HOLMES MS-
HUMPHREYS MS-ISSAQUENA MS-JASPER MS-JEFFERSON MS-
JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-JONES MS-KEMPER MS-LAMAR MS-
LAUDERDALE MS-LAWRENCE MS-LEAKE MS-LEFLORE MS-
LINCOLN MS-LOWNDES MS-MADISON MS-MARION MS-
MONTGOMERY MS-NESHOBA MS-NEWTON MS-NOXUBEE MS-
OKTIBBEHA MS-RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-SHARKEY MS-SIMPSON MS-
SMITH MS-SUNFLOWER MS-WARREN MS-WASHINGTON MS-
WEBSTER MS-WINSTON MS-YAZOO MS-

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 131 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA

CONCORDIA             EAST CARROLL          MADISON
TENSAS

IN MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 47 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

ATTALA                CHOCTAW               COPIAH
HINDS                 HOLMES                HUMPHREYS
LEAKE                 MADISON               RANKIN
SCOTT                 SIMPSON               SMITH
YAZOO

IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

CLARKE                JASPER                KEMPER
LAUDERDALE            NESHOBA               NEWTON
NOXUBEE               WINSTON

IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

CARROLL               GRENADA               LEFLORE
MONTGOMERY            WEBSTER

IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

CLAY                  LOWNDES               OKTIBBEHA

IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

BOLIVAR               SUNFLOWER             WASHINGTON

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

JEFFERSON DAVIS       LAWRENCE              LINCOLN
MARION

IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

COVINGTON             FORREST               JONES
LAMAR

IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

ADAMS                 CLAIBORNE             FRANKLIN
JEFFERSON

IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

ISSAQUENA             SHARKEY               WARREN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
VICKSBURG...GREENWOOD...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...TALLULAH...
BROOKHAVEN...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...NATCHEZ...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...KOSCIUSKO...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...
MORTON...CARTHAGE...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...
HAZLEHURST...WESSON...LAUREL...YAZOO CITY...BAY SPRINGS...
HEIDELBERG...JACKSON...PORT GIBSON...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...
CONEHATTA...GRENADA...STARKVILLE...LAKE PROVIDENCE...FAYETTE...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...MONTICELLO...
NEW HEBRON...WINONA...COLUMBIA...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...VAIDEN...
NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...MERIDIAN...CLEVELAND...ACKERMAN...
WEIR...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...EUPORA...MABEN...
MATHISTON...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...
BELZONI...ISOLA...GREENVILLE...MAYERSVILLE...COLLINS...
MOUNT OLIVE...LOUISVILLE...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...
HATTIESBURG...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...
WEST FERRIDAY...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH AND WATERPROOF

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
454 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SCHLATER                33.64N 90.35W
04/06/2005                   LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN AND MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED.

0955 AM     HAIL             MORGAN CITY             33.38N 90.35W
04/06/2005  0.75 INCH        LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NW CARROLLTON        33.61N 90.05W
04/06/2005                   CARROLL            MS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
501 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NW CARROLLTON        33.61N 90.05W
04/06/2005                   CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&

LJW/MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
503 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               33.52N 90.19W
04/06/2005  0.88 INCH        LEFLORE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LJW/MW