Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 070030
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
729 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

MSC099-070030-
NESHOBA MS-
729 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT FOR 
NESHOBA COUNTY...

AT 727 PM CDT...THE RAIN HAD ENDED IN NESHOBA COUNTY.  A BRIEF FINAL 
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A QUICK HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE 
COUNTY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  

HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS OF JUST 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE ESTIMATED BY 
RADAR IN THE COUNTY.  THUS...FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER 
ANTICIPATED. 

LAT...LON 3293 8930 3293 8897 3291 8896 3291 8894
      3293 8892 3259 8893 3260 8930

$$

CRAVEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
214 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE INTO LATE
EVENING HOURS...

.SHORT TERM...NUMEROUS HAIL AND TORNADO REPORTS HAVE COME IN TODAY
THUS FAR. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SLIGHT TREND DEVELOPING IN THE
MODE OF SEVERE. THE FREQUENCY OF TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL
PRODUCING SUPERCELLS IS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. VAD WIND PROFILES OFF
OF THE JACKSON RADAR STILL SHOW A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT THIS TREND MIGHT BE
TEMPORARY. FACTOR THAT IN WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS...HIGH SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY...AND THE SEVERE AND TORNADIC WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MORE OR LESS
ALONG THE RIVER. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE GUN UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. ALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE CHOSEN TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG WORDING IN THE ZONES
AND IN OTHER PRODUCTS.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY LATE THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION PASSES OVERHEAD. WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN...THUS HELPING TO ENABLE FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE TORNADIC CONCERNS WILL END AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

.LONG TERM...NOT TOO MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. CLOUDS LOOK TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY AND UNTIL MIDDAY FRI
BEFORE SKIES FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. SHOWERS WILL FINALLY START
TO END FRIDAY MORNING AS THE THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WITH H9 TEMPS ONLY 9C MID 60S STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO START TO WARM UP QUICKLY WITH LOWER TO MID
70S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP INTO SUN AS SOUTHERLY LL WINDS
BRING IN H85 TEMPS OF 14C BY SUN AFTERNOON.

AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM COMING IN AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS GETTING STRONGER AND WETTER. WILL CONTINUE
TO BUMP UP THE POPS FOR MON. WILL ALSO STAY AROUND MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT BUT GFS NOW
SHOWING H85 FLOW OF 50+KTS AND ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AXIS NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS IS
FIVE AND 6 DAYS OUT BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. SHEAR LOOKS INCREDIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT FRCST
SNDGS SHOW THESE STORMS POSSIBLY ELEVATED. WILL NOW START TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO. LATER FORECAST AND MODEL RUNS WILL START TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  68  54  67 /  40  50  20  10
MERIDIAN      58  70  53  68 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-
     MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ037-MSZ038-
     MSZ039-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-
     MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ062-
     MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
207 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071907-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
207 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. A COMBINATION OF VERY UNSTABLE
AIR...STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND AN APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS

AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED  TO CONTINUE TO BE FOR
HAIL AND TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AND HIGH WINDS AS THE
SECONDARY CONCERN.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW...ISOLATED SEVERE (HAIL
PRODUCING) THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

...FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING EAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE...OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE
PERPETUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS  WILL ALLOW FOR ONE TO
THREE MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
MAINLY AREAS EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE
REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  IT IS STILL TO EARLY
TO TELL WHAT IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BUT LATEST MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO GET STRONGER AND WETTER WITH THE SYSTEM.  AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WARM MOIST AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. AT THE
SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEING TO PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
342 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             KOKOMO                  31.20N 90.00W
04/06/2005  0.75 INCH        MARION             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0340 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRANDON                 32.28N 90.00W
04/06/2005                   RANKIN             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MINOR STREET FLOODING IN BRANDON AND THE LAKE AT
            CROSSGATES IS OVERFLOWING.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT OLIVE             31.76N 89.66W
04/06/2005                   COVINGTON          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN MOUNT OLIVE.

0230 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SW FANNIN             32.38N 90.01W
04/06/2005                   RANKIN             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES DOWN AROUND THE RESERVIOR AREA.

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NW MAGEE             31.99N 89.88W
04/06/2005                   SIMPSON            MS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND EVERETT.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NW MAGEE             31.99N 89.88W
04/06/2005                   SIMPSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND EVERETT.

&&

LJW/MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S PUCKETT             32.07N 89.78W
04/06/2005                   RANKIN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES ON HWY 13.

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S PUCKETT             32.07N 89.78W
04/06/2005  60 MPH           RANKIN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WING GUST ESTIMATED BY TRAINED STORM SPOTTER.

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N WALNUT GROVE        32.67N 89.46W
04/06/2005                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN OVER 487 AND A BARN DESTROYED.

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKHAVEN              31.58N 90.45W
04/06/2005                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            4 TRAILERS DESTROYED AND 40 TO 60 FEET OF THE VET OFFICES
            ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             SW KOSCIUSKO            33.06N 89.59W
04/06/2005  0.50 INCH        ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FIRE FIGHTER REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN SW ATTALA COUNTY

&&

MME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             CONEHATTA               32.46N 89.27W
04/06/2005  0.75 INCH        NEWTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SALLIS                  33.02N 89.76W
04/06/2005                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS WASHED AWAY AND WATER OVER BRIDGE IN SALLIS.

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW KOSCIUSKO          33.11N 89.65W
04/06/2005                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN OVER HWY 19N. ROAD IS BLOCKED.

0245 PM     HAIL             2 SE RUTH               31.36N 90.29W
04/06/2005  1.75 INCH        LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

1245 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MERIDIAN                32.38N 88.71W
04/06/2005                   LAUDERDALE         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED OVER MEI NAS

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE COLLINSVILLE       32.43N 88.77W
04/06/2005                   LAUDERDALE         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FEW TREES DOWN AND ONE TREE DAMAGED A HOME IN THE
            SUQUALENA AREA.

&&

LJW/MW