Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EST MON SEP 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH TIMING FROPA AND UPPER FEATURES SO WILL
USE A BLEND.

AT 18Z ILX SOUNDING ALONG WITH ACARS DATA CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
700-750MB CAP.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE LACK OF CU FORMING.  SUNNY
SKIES AND SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION HAVE CONSPIRED TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH OUR SOUTHERN AREA INTO THE LOW 90S.  CHALLENGE IS WHEN SAID CAP
WILL ERODE OR BE BROKEN.  AT THIS TIME MOST THINGS POINT TO IT BEING
BROKEN AS OPPOSED TO ERODING.  WITH SUNSET IN ABOUT 3 HOURS ITS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME EROSION COULD OCCUR BUT WITH SUCH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ONGOING THAT WILL BE NEGATED.  THE NEXT POSSIBILITY WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURING IN
ILLINOIS.  ATMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LIS IN
THE -6 TO -8 RANGE AND MODIFIED ILX SOUNDING SHOWING CAPES IN THE
AREA OF 2000J/KG.  MEAN MOTION WILL REMAIN DUE EAST AT FIRST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.  AT 19Z SAID FRONT WAS OVER
NORTHERN MO/IL WITH STORMS STRUNG OUT ALONG IT.  ALL THAT SAID WILL
ADJUST TIMING OF TSRA IN GRIDS TO COINCIDE MORE WITH WHATS CURRENTLY
GOING ON WITH THE TSRA CLUSTER IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FROPA.
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AFTER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS HAVE BEEN UNSETTLED IN TIMING
OF THE FRONT ON FRI/SAT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS IN ON FRIDAY AND
SEE IF LATER RUNS PROVIDE MORE CONSISTENCY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SALLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 PM EST MON SEP 19 2005

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-202130-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
429 PM EST MON SEP 19 2005

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FLASH FLOODING...ISOLATED TORNADOES
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WILL SEE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS THROUGH SUNSET THEN AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

DISCUSSION:

STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 PM EST MON SEP 19 2005

INZ021-028>031-035>044-200400-
BOONE-CARROLL-CLINTON-DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-HAMILTON-HOWARD-MADISON-
MONTGOMERY-PARKE-RANDOLPH-TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-WARREN-
329 PM EST MON SEP 19 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
801 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL INDIANA

BOONE... CLINTON... HAMILTON...
HOWARD... MADISON... TIPTON...

IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA

DELAWARE... RANDOLPH...

IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA

CARROLL...

IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA

FOUNTAIN... MONTGOMERY... PARKE...
TIPPECANOE... VERMILLION... WARREN...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...CRAWFORDSVILLE...
FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...LAFAYETTE AND MUNCIE.