Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 191200
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ILC021-191230-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-050519T1230Z/
CHRISTIAN-
659 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY...

AT 656 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR VANDERVILLE...OR NEAR TAYLORVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 
MPH. AT 654 AM...POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN STONINGTON WITH THIS
STORM.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  TAYLORVILLE.
  PANA.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING...BUT STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3952 8934 3937 8942 3937 8905 3964 8913

$$

CHURCHILL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 191226
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
726 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ILC021-191236-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-050519T1230Z/
CHRISTIAN-
726 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHRISTIAN COUNTY EXPIRES AT 
730 AM CDT...

AT 722 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY 
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3952 8934 3937 8942 3937 8905 3964 8913

$$

CHURCHILL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
352 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER SRN MN...WITH SFC LOW ANALYZED TO BE OVER ERN ND.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH SRN MN...ERN IA...AND BACK INTO ERN
KS. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN IA THROUGH N CENTRAL IL...SRN
INDIANA...AND THROUGH KY.  FIRST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL IL AROUND 03Z...AND QUICKLY LOST THEIR LINE APPEARANCE.
ANOTHER LINE MOVED ACROSS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY LATER IN THE EVENING
AND ARE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF THE STATE FROM
QUINCY TO ROCKFORD.  WARM AIR IS STILL BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NOT
DROPPING MUCH AT ALL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH SRLY WINDS.  SEVERAL
SITES DID NOT DROP BELOW 70F UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL. DWPTS ARE
STEADILY RISING...WITH A CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FROM
04Z-08Z.  MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE NAM HAVING A CLEANER LOOK TO IT FROM F48-F84.
FEEDBACK ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS...HOWEVER...IT SEEMED TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BLOCKING PATTERN...AND LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND
OF IT AND THE ECMWF WHEN NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED.  FORECAST CONCERNS
ARE THE TIMING AND END TO THE ONGOING PRECIP/CONVECTION IN FIRST TWO
PERIODS...TIMING OF NEXT UPPER LOW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...AND
ANOTHER FROPA ON LATE TUES/WED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HPC HAND PROGS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA UNTIL
LATE TODAY...KEEPING ILX CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TROUBLE IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT ENOUGH
HEATING TO STOP A MIX DOWN FROM 15C 850MB TEMPS.  THINK THAT WAA AND
THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN AND KEPT THE MAX TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 80.  SFC LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 18Z
WHILE FILLING IN.  KEPT POPS ACROSS CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  DID NOT
ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER AS INSTABILITY WILL BE EASY TO
FIND.  SPC HAS KEPT US IN A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT RISK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD AND SE OF
THE SFC LOW...THOUGH SHEER BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY
18Z.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPE VALUES >2000 J/KG AT
12Z...INCREASING WITH PROXIMITY TO SFC LOW BY 18Z TO >2700 J/KG.
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.01-1.49 BY 18Z.  GREATEST AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE SE...WHERE DPTS HAVE ALREADY COME CLOSE TO 60F
WITHOUT SHOWERS OVHD.  AS THE SYSTEM GETS INCREASINGLY WRAPPED
UP...MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES UNTIL
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY GIVE US ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO END BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH SRN CANADA.  AT THIS
POINT...THE REFLECTION OF ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MODELS IS
SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE.  AS A RESULT...DO NOT HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE AND
HAVE LEFT THE POPS RELATIVELY LOW.  NEXT SYSTEM WILL COME MUCH
CLOSER TO THE FA AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CHANCE POPS ARE IN GRIDS FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF SFC FEATURE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS VERY LOW SINCE IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEEN PUSHED BACK ABOUT AS MUCH TIME.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

HJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
559 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN...DANVILLE...
DECATUR...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...GALESBURG...HAVANA...JACKSONVILLE...
LAWRENCEVILLE...LINCOLN...MATTOON...PEORIA...SHELBYVILLE...
SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE
559 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM 2 PM THROUGH 8 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PRODUCE FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL AS
THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY...WITH CLOUDS
BREAKING UP LATER THIS MORNING. THE SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM IOWA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REDEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.