Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS53 KICT 040351
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1051 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

KSC035-040400-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-050604T0400Z/
COWLEY KS-
1051 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN COWLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1050 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF DEXTER...OR 20 MILES EAST OF WINFIELD...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MAPLE CITY,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN
COWLEY COUNTY.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES, WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY
AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A
BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3700 9700 3701 9652 3743 9652 3743 9679

$$

DARMOFAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1004 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.UPDATE...
PLANNING ON CANCELLING FLOOD WATCH SHORTLY FOR RUSSELL, BARTON,
ELLSWORTH AND RICE COUNTIES, AS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS ENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEND A MORE COMPREHENSIVE DISCUSSION
SHORTLY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005/

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE:
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA INTO NERN KS AND BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS MCV IN OK HELPS PUSH THIS AREA OF SHRA NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. SO MAY SEE A LULL IN THE CONVECTION AS FIRST AREA MOVES NE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION IN OK BEGINS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE
BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME RECOVERY NOTED SOUTHWEST OF ICT, AS SOME
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AFTER INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION, WITH A NEW
LINE OF CONVECTION FIRING UP ACROSS CEN OK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS MCV MOVES ACROSS
THIS AREA. INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF
RECOVERY, BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AS THE MCV ROTATES NE INTO THE AREA, EXPECT OK CONVECTION TO MOVE NE
BACK INTO THE AREA.  WITH LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE MCV, EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF TSRA TO MOVE ACROSS
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN SERN/CEN KS.  HAVE ALREADY POSTED A
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS IN MIND FOR CEN/SERN KS. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF ICT WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE HIGHER.

OVERNIGHT:
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LKLY POPS FOR AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GREATEST CONVECTION THREAT EXPECTED BEFORE
09Z/SAT.  WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PRECIP WATER
VALUES REMAIN HIGH.

SAT-SUN:
EXPECT OVERNIGHT SHRA/TSRA TO COME TO AN END EARLY SAT, BUT SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LURK ACROSS CEN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL AVAILABLE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.  NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION, SO WILL KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THIS THREAT.  INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORM THAT
CAN GET GOING, COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL, BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
LIMITED FOR LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

SHORTWAVE IN THE ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-135 DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH
OF THE EASTWARD PUSH TO THIS LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,  BUT
WITH LOTS OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AGAIN FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL KEEP POPS IN AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF ICT WITH UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT.

MON:
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA ON MON WITH
WEAK RIDGING EXPECT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE POPS REMOVED DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT FOR LEFT LOW POPS IN
FOR NOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

TUE-THU:
SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME, AS IMPULSES
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE SWRN US INTO THE CEN PLAINS. TRYING TO
PINPOINT BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS DIFFICULT, AT
BEST, AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES TO EJECT
INTO THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE IN THE AREA FOR CONVERGENCE, WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTH CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A TOTAL WASH OUT, JUST
HARD TO PIN DOWN DRY PERIODS. WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  85  63  88 /  70  40  30  20
HUTCHINSON      65  84  62  87 /  70  40  30  20
NEWTON          65  85  63  86 /  70  40  30  20
ELDORADO        65  86  64  87 /  70  40  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  64  88 /  70  40  40  20
RUSSELL         61  80  58  85 /  60  30  20  20
GREAT BEND      62  82  59  86 /  60  30  20  20
SALINA          65  83  62  85 /  60  50  30  20
MCPHERSON       65  84  62  86 /  70  40  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  88  66  87 /  70  40  50  30
CHANUTE         66  87  66  86 /  70  50  50  30
IOLA            66  87  66  85 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ALLEN...BUTLER...CHASE...CHAUTAUQUA...
COWLEY...ELK...ELLSWORTH...GREENWOOD...HARVEY...LABETTE...
LINCOLN...MARION...MCPHERSON...MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO...SALINE...
WILSON...AND WOODSON.

&&

KETCHAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1015 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, GENERALLY ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
AREAS OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH BULLETIN FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION, ANY FLOODING REPORTS
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JMC/KETCHAM

KSZ047-048-050-051-040200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
837 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

...WEATHER WATCH UPDATE MESSAGE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH, NUMBER 387, HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:

BARTON, ELLSWORTH, RICE AND MCPHERSON.

ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED, AREAS OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
937 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     HAIL             ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
06/03/2005  1.00 INCH        COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
939 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
06/03/2005  0.88 INCH        COWLEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
945 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     HAIL             ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
06/03/2005  1.50 INCH        COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
956 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             1 E ARKANSAS CITY       37.07N 97.02W
06/03/2005  1.75 INCH        COWLEY             KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
959 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     FLOOD            EAST WICHITA            37.68N 97.26W
06/03/2005                   SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

            17TH AND 1 BLOCK EAST OF OLIVER, WATER OVER 17TH STREET

&&

CDB