Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS73 KICT 040818
FFSICT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

KSC019-049-040823-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-
317 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND ELK
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE LIFE THREATENING FLOODING THREAT HAS ENDED 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER, VARIOUS LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS ELK 
COUNTY REMAIN UNDERWATER. CONSEQUENTLY, THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL 
BE REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3702 9648 3701 9599 3758 9601 3759 9650

$$

KLEINSASSER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FLOOD WATCH INFORMATION AT BOTTOM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1115 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST, GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. JUST GOT OFF THE PHONE WITH SPC, AND WELL
BE ISSUING ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 AM FOR COWLEY
AND BUTLER COUNTIES ON EASTWARD. STORM(S) OF INTEREST OVER THE LAST
HOUR HAVE BEEN OVER COWLEY COUNTY. THEY HAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY. HAVE ONLY HAD REPORTS OF LOWERINGS,
AND NO FUNNELS OR TORNADOES YET. THESE STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG AND
JUST TO THE NORTH OF AND WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY, HENCE THE TORNADO
THREAT. HOWEVER, THINKING THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A BIT TOO
STABLE FOR STRONG ROTATION TO REACH THE GROUND. NEVERTHELESS, LARGE
HAIL WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE. TORNADO AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST SHOT OF SEVERE WILL
BE GENERALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-135. WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS, AS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS ENDING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005/

.UPDATE...
PLANNING ON CANCELING FLOOD WATCH SHORTLY FOR RUSSELL, BARTON,
ELLSWORTH AND RICE COUNTIES, AS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS ENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEND A MORE COMPREHENSIVE DISCUSSION
SHORTLY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005/

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE:
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS NOW STARTING TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA INTO NERN KS AND BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS MCV IN OK HELPS PUSH THIS AREA OF SHRA NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. SO MAY SEE A LULL IN THE CONVECTION AS FIRST AREA MOVES NE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION IN OK BEGINS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE
BACK INTO THE AREA. SOME RECOVERY NOTED SOUTHWEST OF ICT, AS SOME
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AFTER INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION, WITH A NEW
LINE OF CONVECTION FIRING UP ACROSS CEN OK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS MCV MOVES ACROSS
THIS AREA. INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF
RECOVERY, BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AS THE MCV ROTATES NE INTO THE AREA, EXPECT OK CONVECTION TO MOVE NE
BACK INTO THE AREA.  WITH LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
THE MCV, EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF TSRA TO MOVE ACROSS
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN SERN/CEN KS.  HAVE ALREADY POSTED A
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS IN MIND FOR CEN/SERN KS. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF ICT WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE HIGHER.

OVERNIGHT:
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LKLY POPS FOR AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GREATEST CONVECTION THREAT EXPECTED BEFORE
09Z/SAT.  WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PRECIP WATER
VALUES REMAIN HIGH.

SAT-SUN:
EXPECT OVERNIGHT SHRA/TSRA TO COME TO AN END EARLY SAT, BUT SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LURK ACROSS CEN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL AVAILABLE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.  NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION, SO WILL KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THIS THREAT.  INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORM THAT
CAN GET GOING, COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL, BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
LIMITED FOR LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

SHORTWAVE IN THE ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-135 DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH
OF THE EASTWARD PUSH TO THIS LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,  BUT
WITH LOTS OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AGAIN FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL KEEP POPS IN AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF ICT WITH UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT.

MON:
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA ON MON WITH
WEAK RIDGING EXPECT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE POPS REMOVED DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT FOR LEFT LOW POPS IN
FOR NOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

TUE-THU:
SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME, AS IMPULSES
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE SWRN US INTO THE CEN PLAINS. TRYING TO
PINPOINT BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS DIFFICULT, AT
BEST, AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES TO EJECT
INTO THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE IN THE AREA FOR CONVERGENCE, WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTH CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A TOTAL WASH OUT, JUST
HARD TO PIN DOWN DRY PERIODS. WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  85  63  88 /  70  40  30  20
HUTCHINSON      65  84  62  87 /  70  40  30  20
NEWTON          65  85  63  86 /  70  40  30  20
ELDORADO        65  86  64  87 /  70  40  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  64  88 /  70  40  40  20
RUSSELL         61  80  58  85 /  60  30  20  20
GREAT BEND      62  82  59  86 /  60  30  20  20
SALINA          65  83  62  85 /  60  50  30  20
MCPHERSON       65  84  62  86 /  70  40  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  88  66  87 /  70  40  50  30
CHANUTE         66  87  66  86 /  70  50  50  30
IOLA            66  87  66  85 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ALLEN, BUTLER, CHASE, CHAUTAUQUA, COWLEY, ELK, GREENWOOD,
LABETTE, MARION, MONTGOMERY, NEOSHO, WILSON, AND WOODSON.

&&

KETCHAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1110 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE 1 AM
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, GENERALLY ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
AREAS OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH BULLETIN FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH ROUGHLY 2 AM. ADDITIONALLY, ANY FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JMC/KETCHAM/ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1032 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

KSZ069>072-093>096-098>100-040900-
ALLEN KS-BUTLER KS-CHAUTAUQUA KS-COWLEY KS-ELK KS-
GREENWOOD KS-LABETTE KS-MONTGOMERY KS-NEOSHO KS-
WILSON KS-WOODSON KS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388
UNTIL 400 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

BUTLER                COWLEY

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

ALLEN                 CHAUTAUQUA            ELK
GREENWOOD             LABETTE               MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO                WILSON                WOODSON

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CHANUTE...COFFEYVILLE...EL DORADO...EUREKA...
IOLA...PARSONS...SEDAN...WINFIELD AND YATES CENTER.

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1053 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW MARION             38.36N 97.03W
06/03/2005                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REMINGTON ROAD FROM HIGHWAY 56 TO 290TH IS CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 PM     FLOOD            1 NW BURDEN             37.32N 96.77W
06/03/2005                   COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RUNNING ACROSS ROADS NORTHWEST OF BURDEN

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TORNADO          3 SW DEXTER             37.15N 96.75W
06/03/2005                   COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W ARKANSAS CITY       37.07N 97.11W
06/03/2005                   COWLEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AND ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF ON 166
            HIGHWAY 4 MILES WEST OF ARKANSAS CITY. TIME WAS ESTIMATED
            AT 10 PM

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E ARKANSAS CITY       37.07N 97.11W
06/03/2005                   COWLEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AND ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF ON 166
            HIGHWAY 4 MILES EAST OF ARKANSAS CITY. TIME WAS ESTIMATED
            AT 10 PM

&&

CDB