Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
332 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH EVENING IS GOING TO BE LARGE HAIL. IMPRESSIVE
MIDDLE LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 88D DATA ALREADY SHOWING MIDDLE LEVEL
ROTATION WITH STRONGER STORMS. NRLY STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS, SO
SPLITTING STORMS LIKELY. ANTICIPATE THE STRONGER STORMS TO DIMINISH
A BIT LATER THIS EVENING AS IT TRANSITIONS TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
NOT ANTICIPATING A LOT OF MVMT TO MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA UNTIL
AFTER 0600 UTC, WHEN 0600 UTC WORKSTATION ETA-KF SHOWS MCS ROLLING
INTO SOUTHEAST KS.  GIVEN LACK OF ANTICEDENT PRECIPITATION, WILL NOT
GO WITH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IT
CLOSELY.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BASED ON TRACK RECORD THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL CONTINUE WITH COMBO OF
PERSISTENCE, ETA-KF WHICH ALL SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SPARCE IN THE MORNING, WITH NEXT ROUND CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA, MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD GRADIENT END FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.  SOME
SEVERE THREAT, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS/AIRMASS RECOVERY.

SAT-MON:
RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER PERIODS, RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  LITTLE
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD IS CONVECTION.  FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DURING THE PERIOD, GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY
THE 5 DAY MEAN OF THE 500 MB HEIGHTS.  THEY ALSO ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE PROSPECT FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ALL THE
WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH.
AT THIS TIME, BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS BEING AFFECTED ADVERSELY BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL THAT
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT SOUTH.

GIVEN THE MEAN PATTERN OF RIDGE BUILDING, AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT
THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL NOT PROGRESS MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL PRODUCE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GFS MOS.

KRC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  72  50  73 /  80  40  40   5
HUTCHINSON      57  71  48  72 /  80  40  30   5
NEWTON          59  72  49  71 /  80  40  40   5
ELDORADO        62  72  50  71 /  80  40  50   5
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  73  51  73 /  80  40  40  10
RUSSELL         50  70  46  69 /  50  40  20   0
GREAT BEND      52  70  46  71 /  60  30  20   0
SALINA          54  69  47  69 /  80  40  30   0
MCPHERSON       56  71  48  70 /  80  40  30   5
COFFEYVILLE     65  76  53  71 /  70  70  60  10
CHANUTE         64  74  52  70 /  80  60  60  10
IOLA            64  73  51  70 /  80  60  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HOWERTON/KRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1206 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1206 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO LYONS, AND ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM YATES CENTER TO SEDAN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OCCURS AND SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE AREA GREATEST AT RISK FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT, AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA, AS RICH GULF MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DUE
TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. PLEASE CHECK BACK LATER TODAY FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES AND OUTLOOKS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SCENARIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JAKUB/KLEINSASSER

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