Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT:
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH WEAK MESOLOW
OVER MCPHERSON COUNTY WITH A TRAILING WEAK SURFACE TROF AXIS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST WICHITA TO NEAR PONCA CITY. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND THE FLINT HILLS. THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH HUTCHINSON INTO FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROF,
CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3,000 TO 4,000 J/KG - SO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, MOSTLY RESULTING FROM SPEED SHEAR, IS ON
THE ORDER OF 35-45 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN WEAK CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER,
A 105 KT UPPER SPEED MAX IS NOSING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
SOUTHERN KS WITH A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER EASTERN KS INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS EXPECTED
ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ANY STORM TRAVELING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BY
12Z WEDNESDAY, COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM EXTREME NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY NAM,
SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT, SO ALSO CARRYING LOW POPS WELL NORTH OF FRONT IN CENTRAL KS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
850 FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN KS WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS,
PRECIPITATION, AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN IN LOWER 70S,
SO IT SHOULD FEEL MUCH COOLER. NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
LIFT OUT ACROSS KS/OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS
SHOW COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SO WOULD EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL JUST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST KS. THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH LATER MODEL RUNS, SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. NEVETHELESS, HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KS LOOK WARRANTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
KANSAS REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL IS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT PER 12Z GFS. THEREFORE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF HAVE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
STALLING IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. THESE
MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW THE
FRONT TO TEMPORARILY LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE FRONT
COMES BACK DOWN INTO OUR AREA PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN LATER MODEL RUNS. THERMAL PATTERN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT, AND WILL THEN MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-TUESDAY.

CARUSO

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  73  60  81 /  40  60  40  20
HUTCHINSON      59  72  59  81 /  30  40  30  10
NEWTON          62  72  59  81 /  40  40  30  20
ELDORADO        62  72  60  81 /  40  50  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  73  61  81 /  70  60  50  30
RUSSELL         54  73  55  81 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      55  72  57  81 /  30  30  20  10
SALINA          58  73  57  81 /  20  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       58  73  58  81 /  30  30  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  76  62  81 /  80  60  70  50
CHANUTE         63  76  60  80 /  70  60  60  30
IOLA            63  75  59  80 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-141200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
415 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT MAY BRING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY OUT TO SPECULATE ON THE
SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
738 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEODESHA                37.42N 95.68W
09/13/2005  60 MPH           WILSON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
739 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             NEODESHA                37.42N 95.68W
09/13/2005  0.75 INCH        WILSON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
751 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SEDAN                   37.13N 96.18W
09/13/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF RIPPED OFF HOME

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
757 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NW SEDAN              37.22N 96.30W
09/13/2005  60 MPH           CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
759 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 W PARSONS            37.34N 95.45W
09/13/2005  73 MPH           LABETTE            KS   ASOS

&&

REC

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