Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
205 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/FLOODING POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOMORROW MORNING.

OVERNIGHT:
SEVERE WEATHER IS ONGOING, FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE VICINITY OF THE FLINT HILLS SOUTHWARD. TO THE WEST, A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROF EXTENDS FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE TROF SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALL THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THINK ANY CHANCES
FOR A TORNADO, WHICH IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE, WOULD BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A FLOOD WATCH OVER NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT IT ONLY TAKES AROUND AN INCH JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD TO CAUSE FLOODING AND THESE STORMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE THAT POTENTIAL.

MONDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-135 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH NOON MONDAY BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLER WARMER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY:
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THAT IN MIND, DID INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS MAINLY THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WITH LEE TROFFING IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS,
THEN A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THINK THESE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND THAT IS
THE REASON FOR KEEPING THINGS DRY.
ONGOING CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 70+ KT JET STREAK. COULD SEE
SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
NUMEROUS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING, AS MCV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA, AS WELL AS LINGERING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK.

HOWEVER, AM THINKING THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND EXTEND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INTENSE SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO GO NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
GOOD/DEEP DYNAMIC LIFT OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY,
WHICH WOULD HAMPER DESTABILIZATION. REGARDLESS, STRENGTH OF
MID/UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF
I-135. DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN STRENGTH OF FORCING, ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
GO LINEAR, WHICH WOULD INCREASE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, THINKING THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE
CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS, AS MORE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, AS SURFACE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO BEST MID/UPPER FORCING MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. COULD
VERY WELL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY, AS GFS IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SUPPORTS THE SUPER SLOW SCENARIO.

EXPECTING *MUCH* QUIETER (DRY) WEATHER FROM EARLY/MID WEEK AND
BEYOND, AS CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BE INFLUENCED BY MID/UPPER RIDGING.
LARGE BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO SETUP, WITH TROUGHS OVER
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S MOST OF THE WEEK, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA, RESULTING IN A NORTH/EAST
COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THINKING TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
WARMING UP BY NEXT WEEKEND, AS WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES AND
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN, DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST, AS IT WAS IN
FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  66  87  62 /  80  70  40  10
HUTCHINSON      83  65  85  60 /  80  70  30   5
NEWTON          83  65  86  61 /  80  70  40  10
ELDORADO        84  66  87  62 /  80  70  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  89  63 /  80  70  40  20
RUSSELL         80  62  82  57 /  70  70  20   5
GREAT BEND      80  62  83  57 /  70  70  20   5
SALINA          83  64  83  59 /  80  70  30   5
MCPHERSON       83  65  85  60 /  80  70  30   5
COFFEYVILLE     85  67  90  64 /  60  70  40  30
CHANUTE         85  67  89  64 /  70  70  40  20
IOLA            85  67  89  64 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ALLEN...BARTON...BUTLER...CHASE...
CHAUTAUQUA...COWLEY...ELK...ELLSWORTH...GREENWOOD...HARPER...
HARVEY...KINGMAN...LABETTE...LINCOLN...MARION...MCPHERSON...
MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO...RENO...RICE...RUSSELL...SALINE...
SEDGWICK...SUMNER...WILSON...AND WOODSON.

&&

KLEINSASSER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
558 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
558 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS.
CONSEQUENTLY, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY.
FURTHERMORE, NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE,
OR FORECASTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 135, AND FARTHER EAST TONIGHT. AS ALWAYS, RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REPORTS ARE ALWAYS GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
140 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW CHAUTAUQUA        37.01N 96.26W
06/12/2005  70 MPH           CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OUTSIDE TABLES AND CHAIRS BLOWN AWAY.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
156 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 N MATFIELD GREEN      38.26N 96.56W
06/12/2005  65 MPH           CHASE              KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
221 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S THRALL              37.95N 96.33W
06/12/2005  60 MPH           GREENWOOD          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
223 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             5 S THRALL              37.95N 96.33W
06/12/2005  0.88 INCH        GREENWOOD          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SE LONGTON            37.31N 95.99W
06/12/2005  60 MPH           ELK                KS   PUBLIC

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 WSW FREDONIA          37.50N 95.92W
06/12/2005  60 MPH           WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW