Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS SE TX.  WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED.  THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT
LCH AND THE ETA20 INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
STILL EXISTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.  ALSO...THE PATCHY
FOG OVER GALVESTON BAY HAS LIFTED A BIT...BUT WILL STILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

PL-40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 645 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005)

UPDATE...
WEATHER PROBLEM OF THE EVENING INCLUDES SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...AND PATCHY FOG NEAR GALVESTON BAY. THE
TORNADO WATCH GOES UNTIL 07Z (1 AM).  THE BEST TIME FRAME APPEARS
TO BE THROUGH 04Z.  CONCERNING PATCHY FOG...DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE CLOSE TO GALVESTON ISLAND AND INTO
GALVESTON BAY.  WITH WATER TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...SEA FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM UNTIL SOME DRIER AIR PUSHES
THROUGH.

PL-40

&&

MARINE...
SEA FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF GALVESTON
BAY AND POSSIBLY THE GULF WATERS ADJACENT GALVESTON BAY. DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WERE OVERRUNNING WATER TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S -- PLEASURE PIER HAD A WATER TEMPERATURE OF
65...THE DEWPOINT AT GLS WAS 65 AND AT PSX 68.

40/45

&&

AVIATION...
CIGS COMING DOWN ALONG THE MOIST CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LBX TO IAH TO
NEAR CXO. STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS MOIST AXIS AND WILL BE PLAGUING
THE IAH TERMINAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GLS COULD HAVE VISBY DROP
TO 1 MILE IF THE EASTERLY WINDS HOLD THOUGH EXPECTING THESE TO VEER
TO THE SOUTH. EXPECTING THE STORMS TO BE OVER BY 05Z FOR ALL BUT GLS
TERMINALS.

&&

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...GRIMES...
      HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...
      POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
      AND WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
334 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO THIS
EVENING...

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CONTINUES
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCLUDES LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT....
SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.