Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SW NC AND THE NE GA
MTNS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THESE
ZONES. DON/T THINK THAT AREAS FARTHER E WL SEE AS GREAT OF
COVERAGE AND THE UPPER LOW/COLD TROUGH ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PCPN WL MOVE LITTLE THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WEEK FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPART A MEAN NLY MOVEMENT TO THE CELLS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 241 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... KGSP 88-D SHOWS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP IN MANY
OTHER AREAS THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS NOT BEEN LONG LIVED.
STILL...AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. CONVECTION PROBABLY
INHIBITED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...WEAK FLOW AND THE AXIS OF
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ADVERTISED BY 12KM ETA OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY AXIS
PROGD TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDOWN...IT APPEARS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND WE WILL PEG POPS AT 50
THOSE LOCATIONS. CHANCE POPS ALL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDOWN.

WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WE EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO
END...ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM SWINGS A SWATH OF MODERATE RAIN FROM
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH CENTRAL UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA BY 06Z. WE
WILL NOT BUY INTO THAT YET GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AT THE MOMENT. WILL ADVERTISE FOG AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ALTHOUGH STRATUS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GIVEN MUCH
MOISTER SURFACE LAYER AROUND 12Z ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ON SUNDAY...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT PROGD TO DIP SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH NAM AND GFS GENERATING DECENT TROFINESS LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS STILL QUITE MOIST. WILL GRANT ALL ZONES
POPS IN THE 40% RANGE...HIGHEST FAR WEST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE LEE TROF AXIS. LOWEST POPS
FOR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA SOUTH TO GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG METRO AREA
TO ANDERSON. WILL GO A BIT WARMER ON MAXES DUE TO WARMER MODEL
THICKNESSES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S CANADA AND A HIGH TO THE S OF THE
REGION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
DEPTH OF MOISTURE INCREASING IN WEAK H85 SOUTHERLY AFTER MID WEEK.
NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION AND SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS NEAR 90...LOWS AROUND 70 WITH
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER MTNS. IRENE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NE AWAY FROM THE E COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

AVIATION...
AGAIN TODAY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY JUST BEFORE TIME FOR THE
NEW 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALREADY RW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT KAND EACH TAF
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH OR VCTS REMARK BEGINNING AT 20Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND REGIME TO CONTINUE...WITH CALM WINDS INDICATED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AFTER 00Z OR 01Z...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION COULD STILL BE
ONGOING IN THE WEST BUT AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. PERSISTENCE WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THE OVERNIGHT RE FOG/STRATUS TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A BIT
MORE SURFACE-LAYER MOISTURE THAN TODAY SO WE EXPECT MORE IFR
CEILINGS...INCLUDED AS TEMPO GROUPS KAND/KAVL/KHKY RIGHT AROUND 12Z.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH SUNDAY AND STRONG LEE TROF
DISPLAYED ON NAM/GFS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY GET AN EARLY START AGAIN
SUNDAY BUT WITH MORE CLOUDINESS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR VCSH ADVERTISED AT
KAND/KAVL/KHKY BY THE END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-141000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
554 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-132200-
GRAHAM-HAYWOOD-MACON NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
SWAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...SYLVA...WAYNESVILLE
436 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...

AT 430 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SMOKY AND COWEE MOUNTAINS...
INCLUDING THE FONTANA LAKE AND LITTLE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS.
THROUGH 6 PM...THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF PEAS. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE FROM FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

BOATERS ON FONTANA LAKE SHOULD SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE UNTIL THE
STORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

SCZ005-006-010-132315-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...GREENVILLE
614 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE...

AT 6 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASLEY TO NEAR PIEDMONT...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR ANDERSON. THE STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THROUGH 715 PM...THESE
STORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PICKENS
COUNTY...EASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY...AND WESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. PONDING OF WATER WILL BE LIKELY IN LOW SPOTS ON HIGHWAYS 123...
81...AND OTHER ROADS AND HIGHWAYS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

SCZ002-003-005>007-132350-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG
654 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE...

AT 748 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASLEY TO NEAR WOODRUFF...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THIS AREA AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF SPARTANBURG COUNTY.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THROUGH 745 PM...THESE STORMS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM NEAR PUMPKINTOWN AND DACUSVILLE...
TO GREER...TO SPARTANBURG AND NEAR PACOLET.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. PONDING OF WATER WILL BE LIKELY IN LOW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN AREAS SUCH AS SPARTANBURG AND OTHER TOWNS ACROSS THE
AREA.

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LANE/OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

SCZ002-003-005>007-132350-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG
654 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE...

AT 648 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASLEY TO NEAR WOODRUFF...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THIS AREA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF SPARTANBURG COUNTY.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 10 MPH. THROUGH 745 PM...THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS FROM NEAR PUMPKINTOWN AND DACUSVILLE...TO GREER...TO
SPARTANBURG AND NEAR PACOLET.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. PONDING OF WATER WILL BE LIKELY IN LOW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN AREAS SUCH AS SPARTANBURG AND OTHER TOWNS ACROSS THE
AREA.

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LANE/OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

NCZ036-056-069>071-132345-
CATAWBA-GASTON-IREDELL-LINCOLN NC-MECKLENBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...GASTONIA...HICKORY...
LINCOLNTON...STATESVILLE
711 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE NORMAN THROUGH 745 PM...

AT 710 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED OVER LAKE NORMAN...WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF
THE STORM IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST IREDELL COUNTY ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF
MOORESVILLE. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWEST TOWARD TERRELL. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER FROM THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
726 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

NCZ034-140020-
CALDWELL-
726 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY...

AT 725 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF NEARLY
STATIONARY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY BETWEEN
LENOIR AND KINGS CREEK. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES
PER HOUR. RAPID RISES ON MANY CREEKS ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF
LENIOR...ALONG HIGHWAYS 18 AND 64...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 815 PM.

MCAVOY