Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 132240
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

NCC099-140045-
JACKSON NC-
641 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR JACKSON
COUNTY...

AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAD SHIFTED EAST...AND WAS FALLING IN THE 
VICINITY OF CULLOWHEE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES THAT AROUND 3 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.

RAINFALL HAS LIGHTENED UP IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY...THOUGH 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. SO FAR 
NO FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE COUNTY...OTHER THAN WHERE 
SAVANNAH CREEK CAME OUT OF ITS BANKS INTO A FEW FIELDS. 
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS STILL HIGH... 
PARTICULARLY ALONG STREAMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF CULLOWHEE SUCH AS 
WAYEHUTTA CREEK AND CANE CREEK.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SYLVA AND
BALSAM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3512 8316 3531 8294 3549 8314 3541 8336
      3526 8332

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SW NC AND THE NE GA
MTNS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THESE
ZONES. DON/T THINK THAT AREAS FARTHER E WL SEE AS GREAT OF
COVERAGE AND THE UPPER LOW/COLD TROUGH ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PCPN WL MOVE LITTLE THE NEXT FEW HRS AND WEEK FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPART A MEAN NLY MOVEMENT TO THE CELLS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 241 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... KGSP 88-D SHOWS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP IN MANY
OTHER AREAS THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS NOT BEEN LONG LIVED.
STILL...AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. CONVECTION PROBABLY
INHIBITED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...WEAK FLOW AND THE AXIS OF
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ADVERTISED BY 12KM ETA OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY AXIS
PROGD TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDOWN...IT APPEARS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND WE WILL PEG POPS AT 50
THOSE LOCATIONS. CHANCE POPS ALL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDOWN.

WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WE EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO
END...ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM SWINGS A SWATH OF MODERATE RAIN FROM
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH CENTRAL UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA BY 06Z. WE
WILL NOT BUY INTO THAT YET GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AT THE MOMENT. WILL ADVERTISE FOG AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ALTHOUGH STRATUS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD GIVEN MUCH
MOISTER SURFACE LAYER AROUND 12Z ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ON SUNDAY...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT PROGD TO DIP SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH NAM AND GFS GENERATING DECENT TROFINESS LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS STILL QUITE MOIST. WILL GRANT ALL ZONES
POPS IN THE 40% RANGE...HIGHEST FAR WEST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE LEE TROF AXIS. LOWEST POPS
FOR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA SOUTH TO GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG METRO AREA
TO ANDERSON. WILL GO A BIT WARMER ON MAXES DUE TO WARMER MODEL
THICKNESSES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS S CANADA AND A HIGH TO THE S OF THE
REGION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
DEPTH OF MOISTURE INCREASING IN WEAK H85 SOUTHERLY AFTER MID WEEK.
NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION AND SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS NEAR 90...LOWS AROUND 70 WITH
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER MTNS. IRENE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NE AWAY FROM THE E COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

AVIATION...
AGAIN TODAY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY JUST BEFORE TIME FOR THE
NEW 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALREADY RW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT KAND EACH TAF
WILL INCLUDE A VCSH OR VCTS REMARK BEGINNING AT 20Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND REGIME TO CONTINUE...WITH CALM WINDS INDICATED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AFTER 00Z OR 01Z...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION COULD STILL BE
ONGOING IN THE WEST BUT AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. PERSISTENCE WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THE OVERNIGHT RE FOG/STRATUS TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A BIT
MORE SURFACE-LAYER MOISTURE THAN TODAY SO WE EXPECT MORE IFR
CEILINGS...INCLUDED AS TEMPO GROUPS KAND/KAVL/KHKY RIGHT AROUND 12Z.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH SUNDAY AND STRONG LEE TROF
DISPLAYED ON NAM/GFS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY GET AN EARLY START AGAIN
SUNDAY BUT WITH MORE CLOUDINESS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR VCSH ADVERTISED AT
KAND/KAVL/KHKY BY THE END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-141000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
554 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-132200-
GRAHAM-HAYWOOD-MACON NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
SWAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...SYLVA...WAYNESVILLE
436 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...

AT 430 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SMOKY AND COWEE MOUNTAINS...
INCLUDING THE FONTANA LAKE AND LITTLE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS.
THROUGH 6 PM...THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF PEAS. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE FROM FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

BOATERS ON FONTANA LAKE SHOULD SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE UNTIL THE
STORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE