Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO LOWER COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A COMBINATION OF
RATHER DENSE CIRRUS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IS RESULTING IN
CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE...MUCH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. ALSO...THE BEST CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS. LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABSENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SO DOUBT WELL
SEE THE VIGOROUS COLD POOL INTERACTIONS THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS EVENING.
WHAT CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT...AS A
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL
VORT MAX.

1200 UTC HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD TROF OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH MOVE THIS FEATURE INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY LATE
SUN. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN A
DEEP ELY FLOW. THE NAM TURNS THE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS LATER IN THE AFTN OVER NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE.
THIS MIGHT BE MORE A RESULT OF THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ADJUSTING TO
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE NAM. AT ANY RATE...DON/T BUY IT/S
DEVELOPING A STRONG NW TO SE ORIENTED AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NRN UPSTATE LATE IN THE DAY. INSTEAD...FAVOR THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LEE
SLOPES...WHICH WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE AFTN HRS.
WITH WEAK BUT STRONGLY VEERING FLOW AND UPPER SUPPORT...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL PASS E OF THE REGION EARLY MON...LEAVING
US UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT THERE
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THE 4TH.
HOWEVER...MID LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
PULSE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS WL INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WELL...THOUGH LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIVE DOWNSLOPE
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM BALLOONING MUCH ABOVE 90.

WEAK COLD FRONT WL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE ON TUE. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ABOUT TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOR ABOUT HOW MUCH CONVECTION
WL ACCOMPANY OR PRECEDED IT AS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVES WL
LIKELY BE THE BIG DRIVER FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH DRY MID LEVELS...SO ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE THREAT WL BE WITH US AGAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LATEST GFS KEEPS THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE CWFA
WED-FRI. THEREFORE WL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ALL THREE
DAYS WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE AFTN AND EVENINGS.
HGHTS RISE AND THE FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT BY SAT. HOWEVER...SRN STREAM
ENERGY WL BEGIN TO APPROACH AND WL CONTINUE THE POPS THROUGH DAY 7.
&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SO VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE AT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH MID EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT
TO FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE A BIG PROBLEM WITH
FOG...BUT STILL EXPECT A ROUND OF MVFR VISBY AT MOST SITES LATE
TONIGHT. LARGER PROBLEM MAY BE WITH CEILINGS...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO A E/SE DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
VORT MAX. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE STRATUS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN...AND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ADVERTISED AT MOST TERMINALS CIRCA 12Z. HAVE KEPT
CEILINGS ON THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THEM LOWER.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JDL/MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-031000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
601 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-022300-
CALDWELL-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
POLK-RUTHERFORD-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE
455 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE SHOWN BY RADAR MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...INTO THE
PIEDMONT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED
EARLIER FROM THIS COMPLEX.

STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT IREDELL...DAVIE...AND ROWAN COUNTIES
UNTIL AT LEAST 6 PM. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
CALDWELL...CATAWBA...BURKE...AND MCDOWELL COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
WILL REACH
POLK...RUTHERFORD...CLEVELAND...LINCOLN...CABARRUS...GASTON...AND
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES.

FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL THE MOST COMMON WEATHER
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS.

JONES

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