Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO LOWER COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A COMBINATION OF
RATHER DENSE CIRRUS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IS RESULTING IN
CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE...MUCH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. ALSO...THE BEST CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS. LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABSENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SO DOUBT WELL
SEE THE VIGOROUS COLD POOL INTERACTIONS THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS EVENING.
WHAT CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT...AS A
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL
VORT MAX.

1200 UTC HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD TROF OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH MOVE THIS FEATURE INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY LATE
SUN. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE...RESULTING IN A
DEEP ELY FLOW. THE NAM TURNS THE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS LATER IN THE AFTN OVER NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE.
THIS MIGHT BE MORE A RESULT OF THE MODEL MASS FIELDS ADJUSTING TO
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE NAM. AT ANY RATE...DON/T BUY IT/S
DEVELOPING A STRONG NW TO SE ORIENTED AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NRN UPSTATE LATE IN THE DAY. INSTEAD...FAVOR THE IDEA OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LEE
SLOPES...WHICH WL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE AFTN HRS.
WITH WEAK BUT STRONGLY VEERING FLOW AND UPPER SUPPORT...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL PASS E OF THE REGION EARLY MON...LEAVING
US UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT THERE
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THE 4TH.
HOWEVER...MID LEVELS DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
PULSE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS WL INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WELL...THOUGH LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIVE DOWNSLOPE
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM BALLOONING MUCH ABOVE 90.

WEAK COLD FRONT WL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE ON TUE. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ABOUT TIMING OF THE FRONT...NOR ABOUT HOW MUCH CONVECTION
WL ACCOMPANY OR PRECEDED IT AS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVES WL
LIKELY BE THE BIG DRIVER FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH DRY MID LEVELS...SO ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE THREAT WL BE WITH US AGAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LATEST GFS KEEPS THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE CWFA
WED-FRI. THEREFORE WL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ALL THREE
DAYS WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE AFTN AND EVENINGS.
HGHTS RISE AND THE FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT BY SAT. HOWEVER...SRN STREAM
ENERGY WL BEGIN TO APPROACH AND WL CONTINUE THE POPS THROUGH DAY 7.
&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...SO VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE AT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH MID EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT
TO FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE A BIG PROBLEM WITH
FOG...BUT STILL EXPECT A ROUND OF MVFR VISBY AT MOST SITES LATE
TONIGHT. LARGER PROBLEM MAY BE WITH CEILINGS...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO A E/SE DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
VORT MAX. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE STRATUS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN...AND GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS...WITH
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ADVERTISED AT MOST TERMINALS CIRCA 12Z. HAVE KEPT
CEILINGS ON THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THEM LOWER.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JDL/MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-031000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
601 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1154 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSS KEYS              34.63N 81.78W
07/01/2005                   UNION              SC   PUBLIC

            MANAGER OF LOCAL GROCERY STORE HAD REPORTS OF SEVERAL
            TREES DOWN FROM AREA RESIDENTS.

&&

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARIETTA                35.03N 82.49W
07/01/2005                   GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            EMPLOYEE OF FOOD SHOP HAD REPORTS OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN
            FROM LOCAL RESIDENTS.

&&

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S CHARLOTTE           35.13N 80.83W
07/01/2005                   MECKLENBURG        NC   PUBLIC

            LOCAL BUSINESSMAN REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR THE
            HOME OF HIS FATHER IN SOUTH PARK.

&&

SBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

NCZ064-SCZ002-003-005-022000-
GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BREVARD
303 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE...

AT 255 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ON THE BORDER OF TRANSYLVANIA AND PICKENS COUNTY...
ABOUT 14 MILES NORTH OF THE CITY OF PICKENS. THROUGH 4 PM...THIS
STORM WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 MPH...
MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 11. THIS
INCLUDES THE TABLE ROCK STATE PARK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
STORM WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IT COULD ALSO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

NCZ034>036-022100-
ALEXANDER-CALDWELL-IREDELL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STATESVILLE
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...

AT 342 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM AROUND WILKESBORO TO BLOWING ROCK.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THROUGH 5
PM...THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF ALEXANDER...CALDWELL...AND THE
NORTHERN PART OF IREDELL COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

LANE