Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE SW. AT LEAST SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA.
UPPER DIFLUENCE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN S FLOW WILL HELP
COVERAGE INCREASE TO LIKELY OVER MTNS...ESCARPMENT AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT AREAS THROUGH THIS EVE. LAPS CAPES REACHED 2000-
3000 J/KG OUTSIDE OF MTNS THIS AFTN. WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BUT SLIGHT
DRYING SHOWING UP AT MID LEVELS SO IF ISOLD STRONG STORMS DO
DEVELOP...HIGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FAR NE GA AND THE W PART OF UPSTATE SC WHERE DRYEST MID LEVELS ARE
INDICATED. HEAVY RAIN STILL OF GREAT CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD... ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE THREAT OF MAINLY LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH THIS AIRMASS...STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE AND ANYTIME IF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH
KEEPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER TROF MOVES E ACROSS N STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH REINFORCES THE TROF OVER THE E U.S. AS IT MOVES E. A
COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO N GA AND THE CAROLINAS FRI...THEN STALLS
ALONG S EDGE OF THE AREA. WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVG THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW COULD INITIATE CONVECTION AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD SO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH EMPHASIS ON MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION DURING
THE WARMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH MID EVENING...EXCEPT
WHERE SCATTERED RW/TRW DEVELOP. WITH SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS...
CONTINUED UPGLIDE...VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH TENNESSEE CLOSED LOW...EACH OF THE TAF SITES HAS
AN EXCELLENT CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WE HAVE FEATURED TEMPO GROUPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWFA LATE WITH
POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INTERACTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. VISIBILITIES
WERE LOWERED INTO THE IFR RANGE MOST LOCATIONS IN PRE-DAWN TEMPO
GROUPS...WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING. LOCATIONS
THAT DO NOT SEE CONVECTION IN THE PREDAWN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD
BLANKET OF IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN MIST. CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE STILL WIDESPREAD AT THE ONSET OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD...WHICH FEATURES CONTINUED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN HAZE
AND CEILINGS APPROACHING LOWER VFR LEVEL BY 18Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-281000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
554 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING...SEE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CAEESFGSP...ISSUED THIS MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-280300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
320 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

...THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AT MID AFTERNOON.  THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS FROM CHERRYVILLE THROUGH
LINCOLNTON...TO SALISBURY AND MOCKSVILLE IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND
JUST WEST OF GREENVILLE IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CAUSED SOME FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...AND THAT WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS FROM AROUND GREENVILLE TO THE HENDERSONVILLE AREA
HAD RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME...WITH
AN ISOLATED 9 INCH TOTAL REPORTED BY AN AUTOMATED GAGE IN EASTERN
HENDERSON COUNTY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MARSHALL NORTH CAROLINA TO GREENWOOD
SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE THE AIR ALOFT WAS A BIT COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE. A WEAK UPPER AIR FEATURE WILL HELP FOCUS SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR...BUT DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN SOME OF THE
STORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL INITIALLY BE IN
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...FROM THE
GREENVILLE AREA NORTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND HENDERSONVILLE AND
ASHEVILLE. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS NEW
RAINFALL CAUSES THE GROUND TO BECOME SATURATED OVER LARGER AREAS.
CRITICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS...WHICH WILL ENOUGH TO
BEGIN FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE MORE THAN ABOUT 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.

IT IS POSSIBLE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLY WARNINGS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             SEDALIA                 34.60N 81.72W
06/27/2005  0.75 INCH        UNION              SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            STRONG WINDS ALSO REPORTED IN TOWN NEAR DEEP RIVER ROAD.

&&

SBK