Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 301403
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1002 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

MIC025-301430-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-050630T1430Z/
CALHOUN MI-
1002 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 AM EDT...

AT 1000 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DUCK LAKE TO BENTLEYS CORNERS...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4225 8489 4242 8490 4242 8473 4215 8473
      4214 8472 4208 8472 4209 8492

$$

RG

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 301430
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

MIC025-301439-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-050630T1430Z/
CALHOUN MI-
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CALHOUN COUNTY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4225 8489 4242 8490 4242 8473 4215 8473
      4214 8472 4208 8472 4209 8492

$$

RG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
432 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON PCPN CHCS AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW QUICKLY
THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION.  ALSO NEED TO
CONSIDER HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WHETHER POPS WILL
BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

POTENT UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING ACROSS MN THIS MORNING.  A LARGE
COMPLEX OF STORMS STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WISCONSIN TO NE KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THEY
RUN AWAY FROM THE BEST UPPER JET SUPPORT.  WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS MORNING.  THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COMPLEX...OVER ERN IA/WRN
IL APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING A
BIT...SO CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  THERE WILL
BE A STRONG PUNCH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE STORMS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH AND SURFACE
TEMPS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.  THIS WILL
BOOST CAPE VALUES TO AT OR ABOVE 3K J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO CLIMB INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE IN THE SOUTH
MAKING FOR A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE DAY...BUT SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
STORMS SHOULD RE-FIRE OVER THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  THERE IS NOT A LOW LEVEL JET TO PROVIDE
LIFT...BUT THE UPPER JET LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE.  THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THIS JET WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.  A 55KT MID LEVEL JET
RISES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL...30-35
KNOTS.  BELIEVE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY BE SE OF A BIV-MOP LINE AND FROM ROUGHLY 1 THROUGH 8
PM.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STEAL MOST OF THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM SHOWER/STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WILL THEREFORE EXTEND CHC POPS OVER THE SE CORNER INTO THE
EVENING.  ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH...BY MIDNIGHT...A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROF COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.  THE MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
DEEP ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...BUT A BKN CU DECK WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR BY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIPPING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. IT WILL
BE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...REACHING WESTERN WI AND IA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...SO THE FRONT
WILL BE PROGRESSING TO THE EAST AT A DECENT PACE. HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...THEN STALLS
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 500MB HEIGHTS REBOUND FROM THE
LOWER 570S ON SATURDAY...TO THE MIDDLE 580S ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AS THE FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE
DRY FORECAST GOING...BUT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THIS FRONT BEGINS TO CREEP BACK NORTH.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JK DUKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
622 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-011000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
622 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN PLACED IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE THREAT WILL EXTEND
FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH ABOUT 800 PM. A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN HAS TOUCHED OFF STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ALREADY SPREADING INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS AS WELL AS HAIL TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AROUND 30 MPH.

WITH A SQUALL LINE SWEEPING THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE SHORE FROM ST. JOSEPH
TO MANISTEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALLER CRAFT. WAVES OF THIS HEIGHT WILL ALSO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
WEATHER.GOV/GRANDRAPIDS (ALL LOWER CASE)

DUKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
827 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HAIL             GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.66W
06/30/2005  0.75 INCH        KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

IOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
940 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S CALEDONIA           42.76N 85.51W
06/30/2005                   BARRY              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT 108TH AND PATTERSON.

0910 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HASTINGS                42.65N 85.29W
06/30/2005                   BARRY              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES DOWN IN INDIAN HILLS AREA OF HASTINGS.

0920 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HASTINGS                42.65N 85.29W
06/30/2005  1.15 INCH        BARRY              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            20 MINUTE RAINFALL IN DOWNTOWN HASTINGS. MAIN STREET
            UNDER 3 INCHES OF WATER.

&&

MJK