Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 301129
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
729 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

MIC121-139-301200-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-050630T1200Z/
MUSKEGON MI-OTTAWA MI-
729 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OTTAWA AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM EDT...

AT 727 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COOPERSVILLE...OR ABOUT 15 MILES
EAST OF GRAND HAVEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HERRINGTON...MARNE...TALLMADGE AND JENISON BY 735 AM EDT
  PENN JUNCTION BY 740 AM EDT

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4310 8581 4286 8580 4298 8623 4299 8624
      4302 8623 4309 8628 4312 8626 4316 8631
      4319 8631

$$

JK

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 301200
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

MIC121-139-301209-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-050630T1200Z/
MUSKEGON MI-OTTAWA MI-
759 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OTTAWA AND MUSKEGON COUNTIES
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4310 8581 4286 8580 4298 8623 4299 8624
      4302 8623 4309 8628 4312 8626 4316 8631
      4319 8631

$$

JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
432 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON PCPN CHCS AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW QUICKLY
THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION.  ALSO NEED TO
CONSIDER HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WHETHER POPS WILL
BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

POTENT UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING ACROSS MN THIS MORNING.  A LARGE
COMPLEX OF STORMS STRETCHED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WISCONSIN TO NE KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THEY
RUN AWAY FROM THE BEST UPPER JET SUPPORT.  WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS MORNING.  THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COMPLEX...OVER ERN IA/WRN
IL APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING A
BIT...SO CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.  THERE WILL
BE A STRONG PUNCH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE STORMS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH AND SURFACE
TEMPS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.  THIS WILL
BOOST CAPE VALUES TO AT OR ABOVE 3K J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO CLIMB INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE IN THE SOUTH
MAKING FOR A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE DAY...BUT SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
STORMS SHOULD RE-FIRE OVER THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  THERE IS NOT A LOW LEVEL JET TO PROVIDE
LIFT...BUT THE UPPER JET LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE.  THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THIS JET WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.  A 55KT MID LEVEL JET
RISES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL...30-35
KNOTS.  BELIEVE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY BE SE OF A BIV-MOP LINE AND FROM ROUGHLY 1 THROUGH 8
PM.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STEAL MOST OF THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM SHOWER/STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WILL THEREFORE EXTEND CHC POPS OVER THE SE CORNER INTO THE
EVENING.  ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH...BY MIDNIGHT...A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROF COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.  THE MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
DEEP ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...BUT A BKN CU DECK WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR BY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIPPING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. IT WILL
BE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...REACHING WESTERN WI AND IA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...SO THE FRONT
WILL BE PROGRESSING TO THE EAST AT A DECENT PACE. HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...THEN STALLS
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 500MB HEIGHTS REBOUND FROM THE
LOWER 570S ON SATURDAY...TO THE MIDDLE 580S ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AS THE FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE
DRY FORECAST GOING...BUT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
TO SEE IF THIS FRONT BEGINS TO CREEP BACK NORTH.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JK DUKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
622 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-011000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
622 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN PLACED IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE THREAT WILL EXTEND
FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH ABOUT 800 PM. A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN HAS TOUCHED OFF STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ALREADY SPREADING INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS AS WELL AS HAIL TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AROUND 30 MPH.

WITH A SQUALL LINE SWEEPING THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE SHORE FROM ST. JOSEPH
TO MANISTEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALLER CRAFT. WAVES OF THIS HEIGHT WILL ALSO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
WEATHER.GOV/GRANDRAPIDS (ALL LOWER CASE)

DUKE