Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
340 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL THINGS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING. CURRENT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIFTING SOUTH...A
LINE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THAT GOT STARTED FROM THE FRONT TO THE
WEST AND ANOTHER BATCH IN THE MIDDLE THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
COUPLE OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COLLIDED. EXPECT THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...BUT WITH MORE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING FORMED AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AM AFRAID
THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THE NEXT CONSIDERATION WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEVERAL
FACTORS WHICH COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER IS
THE FIRST...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MOST OF THE AREA
IS STARTING OUT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO FAIRLY HIGH AND MOIST AIR IS HARDER
TO WARM UP. THEN THERE IS THE FACT THAT WE ARE STILL ABOVE THE
FORECAST LOW BY SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR
TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES.

MODELS ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENT THAT THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NAM HAS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTING TO THE
WEST AND A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH QPF
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS THE HIGH REMAIN FURTHER EAST
THAN THE NAM AND THE UPPER WAVE STAYS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY
STILL PAINT A LITTLE QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF
THE UPPER WAVE AFFECTING THE AREA IS.

BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND PUSHES THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A SHORT WAVE SLIPS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...BUT WILL RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR MISPELLING OF LOUP CITY
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
145 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-211200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
145 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  THERE IS AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY TO YORK.  LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER
DEFINE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

GRIFFIS/NICHOLSON/HEINLEIN