Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE SMALL RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS HOW HOT
TO GO.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED
FROM 500 MB UP TO 250 MB OVER THE GID CWA.  500 MB HEIGHTS WERE 5950
METERS AT BOTH OAX AND LBF.  THUS TROPOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE
WARM...WITH +15C AT 700MB AT NORTH PLATTE.  HOT UPPER RIDGE PATTERN
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

ONE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS MORE MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE
TODAY...WITH 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALING MID 70S DEWPOINTS
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS...75 AT ORD AND AINSWORTH...AND
UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  SURFACE TROF LINE EXTENDED
FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NEAR MC COOK...AND IN THE PAST HOUR
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA.  THIS
CONVECTION DOES HAVE EXTREME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VERY STRONG
UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES DO NOT
SUPPORT LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS.  ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY EXISTS BETWEEN
BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH WITH A WIND SHIFT...AND SLIGHTLY THICKER
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF ORD...BUT UNDER THE CAP.

AS IN RECENT DAYS...THE MODELS TRY TO TAKE THIS CONVECTION AND MOVE
IT SOUTH...DEEP INTO THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION...BUT THUS FAR THAT
HAS NOT HAPPENED.  UPPER FLOW IS WEAK...AND THE STORMS WOULD BE
MOVING INTO THE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  THUS DO NOT HAVE ANY
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE HAS BEEN GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY
WITH BRINGING MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE PLAINS.  COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH AND HANGING UP OVER NEBRASKA MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TRIGGERING
STORMS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HUGE.  HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND
FRONTAL POSITION MAY SET UP HEAVY RAIN CONDITIONS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED WITH TIME.

FOR HIGHS...USED A BLEND OF MOS PLUS WARMING 850 TEMPERATURES
ADIABATICALLY...WHICH GIVES NORTHERN KANSAS A FEW READINGS OF AROUND
100.  RAISED DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH PUTS THE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO DAYTIME
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR 70 FOR SOME
RELIEF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

NIETFELD/HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR MISPELLING OF LOUP CITY
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
145 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-211200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
145 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  THERE IS AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY TO YORK.  LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER
DEFINE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

GRIFFIS/NICHOLSON/HEINLEIN