Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
321 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  GENERALLY THE SAME
PATTERN AS THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. FEEL THAT PERSISTENCE IS A
GOOD CHOICE AND HAVE OPTED TO REINTRODUCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 06Z NAM WAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE 12Z NAM...HOWEVER ALL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT. NOSE OF THE JET WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER AND SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALREADY STARTED
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM LAST NIGHT.

WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
AS THESE LOCATIONS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY
AND LAST NIGHT.  NERAIN DATA SHOWS MAXIMA IN FURNAS COUNTY AND 2+
INCHES IN PORTIONS OF CLAY...FILMORE...YORK AND THAYER.  WHILE MOST
RIVERS HAVE HANDLED THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC.  THIS SHOULD BE A LONGER DURATION RAINFALL EVENT SO
FEEL FLOODING POTENTIAL IS GREATER THAN FLASH FLOODING.

THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER ROUND
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  FOR NOW HAVE PRETTY
MUCH JUST MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT GRIDDED
FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MEAN TROUGH
ON SUNDAY.  THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PASSES.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM
MOVES...THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THOSE CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GID CWFA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.  CONVECTION FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THINK CHANCES OF IT MAKING INTO THE AREA ARE SMALL
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 10 AM FOR S CENTRAL NE COUNTIES
ALONG...SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POLK TO FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ALL N CENTRAL KS
COUNTIES.

&&

LEWIS/KING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1207 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-101200-
ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-CLAY NE-DAWSON NE-FILLMORE NE-FRANKLIN NE-
FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-GREELEY NE-HALL NE-HAMILTON NE-HARLAN NE-
HOWARD NE-JEWELL KS-KEARNEY NE-MERRICK NE-MITCHELL KS-NANCE NE-
NUCKOLLS NE-OSBORNE KS-PHELPS NE-PHILLIPS KS-POLK NE-ROOKS KS-
SHERMAN NE-SMITH KS-THAYER NE-VALLEY NE-WEBSTER NE-YORK NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY...LEXINGTON...PHILLIPSBURG AND YORK
1207 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATE SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN CAUSING FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HAIL             EXETER                  40.64N 97.45W
06/09/2005  0.75 INCH        FILLMORE           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     HAIL             HARVARD                 40.62N 98.10W
06/09/2005  0.75 INCH        CLAY               NE   PUBLIC

&&

CARMEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
205 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

KSZ005-017-NEZ060-072-082-100400-
PHILLIPS KS-ROOKS KS-DAWSON NE-FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 442 UNTIL 1100
PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

PHILLIPS              ROOKS

IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

DAWSON                FURNAS                GOSPER

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LEXINGTON AND PHILLIPSBURG.