Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
312 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION. A NARROW BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A RESULT OF WARM ADVECTION. PLENTY
OF MOIST AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THIS AREA.

BY THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS STRENGTHENS. PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS HAD ENOUGH RAIN IN THE PAST WEEK OR SO THAT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC. THE ONE THING THAT
MIGHT KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN IS THAT THESE STORMS COULD
BE MOVING ALONG FAIRLY FAST.

ON TOP OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...THERE IS SOME CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ABOUT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING THE CAPE INCREASES
TO OVER 3000 J/KG AND THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CIN.

THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ALONG THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY SO HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN. THE FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER AGAIN INCREASES TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS UPPER WAVE IS
STRONGER THAN THE ONE FOR TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT BREAK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES MOVE IN. THE MAIN TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT.
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE OUTER PERIODS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
444 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-101200-
ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-CLAY NE-DAWSON NE-FILLMORE NE-FRANKLIN NE-
FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-GREELEY NE-HALL NE-HAMILTON NE-HARLAN NE-
HOWARD NE-JEWELL KS-KEARNEY NE-MERRICK NE-MITCHELL KS-NANCE NE-
NUCKOLLS NE-OSBORNE KS-PHELPS NE-PHILLIPS KS-POLK NE-ROOKS KS-
SHERMAN NE-SMITH KS-THAYER NE-VALLEY NE-WEBSTER NE-YORK NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY...LEXINGTON...PHILLIPSBURG AND YORK
444 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATE SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN CAUSING FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

JCB