Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
856 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A FAIRLY LINEAR MCS FROM
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20
KTS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  AS THE MODEL FORECASTED LLJ DEVELOPS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ANTICIPATE THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
MY FORECAST AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS OVERDONE WITH PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING AND HAVE
TWEAKED THIS BACK CONSIDERABLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES MUCH FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF NEBRASKA BY 06 TO 09 GMT TIME FRAME VERSUS CLOSER TO THE
STATE LINE PER THE PREVIOUS FCST.  NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT.  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD INDICATE
THAT THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE FOCUSED MORE IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THIS IS ALSO WHERE I AM EXPECTING
THE BEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING.  AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...EXPECT BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.  I AM CONCERNED
ABOUT TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS THERE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
PLACE WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SPEED SHEAR WILL BE LACKING.  OF COURSE WE WILL ALSO BE IN LINE FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
WEAK TORNADOES DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IS ANOTHER CONCERN AS PW VALUES WILL BE
HIGH AND EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH RAIN EFFICIENCIES.  HAVE FLOOD WATCH
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CWA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FROM THE
PREVIOUS MCS.  IF THESE SAME AREAS GET SIMILAR RAIN TONIGHT...I DO
EXPECT FLOODING TO OCCUR.

ANOTHER MCS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.  SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN PLACE LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS OUTFLOW OF MCS
THE NIGHT BEFORE.  THIS COULD BE A REAL MESS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES SWING
BUY.

EXPECT SOME RIDGING TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH AN
EXPECTED WARM UP WITH MORE HIGH PLAINS MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN POPS FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR BUFFALO...DAWSON...FRANKLIN...FURNAS...
     GOSPER...GREELEY... HARLAN...HOWARD...KEARNEY...
     PHELPS...SHERMAN...VALLEY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES.
KS...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR JEWELL...MITCHELL...OSBORNE...
     PHILLIPS AND SMITH COUNTIES.

&&

04/HEINLEIN

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