Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF A KLUD...KMWL...
KJCT LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKE WE HAVE
SEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. HAVE PLACED VCTS AFTER 20Z IN THE METROPLEX AND WACO
TAFS...WITH A TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 20 AND 00Z.  CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.  WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP TOWARD
12Z...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS 12-15Z.  #58

&&

.UPDATE..
1154 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2005
WILL ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE POPS OVER THE
WEST...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES.... AND TO LOWER MAXS
UNDER THE PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.  SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WV SAT
PICS IS RESPONSIBLE AND WILL LIKE CONTINUE TO GENERATE AND EXPAND
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF
OF THE CWA.

IN PLACES WHERE ISOLATION OCCURS... HEATING OF UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
AID ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS A BIG CONCERN FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAVE RECEIVE
HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS.   75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
430 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2005
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SUNDAYS ACTIVITY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...IN THE FORM A BKN/OVC MIXTURE OF
AS/CI.  HOWEVER...SKIES ARE PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA...WHERE AREAS LIGHT FOG/MIST HAVE FORMED IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING.  SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
ALSO NOTED IN KFWS/KGRK REFLECTIVITY DATA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WE WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...LIKELY BEGINNING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHED.  SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE PROGGED BY LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION.  THE LATEST NAM/NGM/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE IN
LINE WITH SREF OUTPUT...AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE MORE CLOSELY
AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK.  WILL SKEW HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THIS
AREA.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...BUT EXPECT A HIGHER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH/WEST.  OTHERWISE...
THE TREND OF EVENING DISSIPATION AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS
CONDITIONS ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS WILL BE USED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AS INCREASING
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE MID AND
UPPER-LEVELS...THUS PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON AIRMASS CONVECTION.  THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE
MAINTAINED...BUT LACK OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM.  NONETHELESS...MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHING 100 AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFSLR SOLUTIONS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  75  97  75 /  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              95  73  94  74 /  50  20  40  20
PARIS, TX             98  70  97  70 /  30  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            97  72  97  72 /  40  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          97  72  97  72 /  40  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            97  75  97  75 /  40  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           97  73  97  73 /  40  20  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         96  73  95  74 /  40  20  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  94  74 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

65/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
500 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
WEAK WIND SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.  OTHERWISE...
ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING ON SOME ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER SETTLES IN LATE
IN THE WEEK.  THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED BETWEEN NOON AND 7
PM.

92

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1215 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BRECKENRIDGE            32.76N  98.91W
08/08/2005                   STEPHENS           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER REPORTED IN HOMES AND BUSINESSES ALONG WALKER
            STREET

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
111 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXZ143-156-157-081845-

CORYELL-HAMILTON-LAMPASAS-
111 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 111 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF EVANT...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF
HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ADAMSVILLE...ARNETT...EVANT
AND PURMELA.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM NORTH OF ADAMSVILLE...TO
NEAR LAMPASAS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT
CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
121 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXZ134-081845-

ELLIS-
121 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 121 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF PALMER...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ENNIS...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN WAXAHACHIE AND ENNIS.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BARDWELL...ENNIS...PALMER
AND WAXAHACHIE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING IF THE STORMS
APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
133 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXZ092-093-081900-

COOKE-GRAYSON-
133 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 133 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MARYSVILLE...TO
GAINESVILLE...TO WEST OF GUNTER AND DENISON. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT
5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CALLISBURG...COLLINSVILLE...
GAINESVILLE...GUNTER...HOWE...LINDSAY...POTTSBORO...SHERMAN...AND
WHITESBORO.

RAINFALL OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
143 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXZ142-143-156-157-081915-

CORYELL-HAMILTON-LAMPASAS-MILLS-
143 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 143 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM5 MILES NORTHWEST OF EVANT...TO
NEAR PIDCOKE...TO NEAR LAMPASAS. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS IN WESTERN
MILLS COUNTY...14 MILES WEST OF GOLDTHWAITE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL OF UP TO 1
INCH PER HOUR. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT
CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.