Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 081639
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXC133-429-081900-
STEPHENS TX-EASTLAND TX-
1137 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR WESTERN 
EASTLAND AND STEPHENS COUNTIES...

AT 1135 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE 
WARNED AREA. THE STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE...TO CISCO 
AND EASTLAND...TO JUST WEST OF RISING STAR. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CISCO... 
HARPERSVILLE...GUNSIGHT...EASTLAND AND BRECKENRIDGE.

THE BRECKENRIDGE POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED WATER ENTERING THE 
LOWEST FLOOR OF AN APARTMENT BUILDING IN BRECKENRIDGE. STREET 
FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN CISCO BY THE EASTLAND COUNTY DISPATCH 
CENTER.

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. 
RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LYING AREAS 
ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. LESS THAN THREE FEET
OF OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3210 9912 3221 9872 3279 9864 3280 9905

$$

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 081721
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXC133-429-081900-
STEPHENS TX-EASTLAND TX-
1218 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR WESTERN 
EASTLAND AND STEPHENS COUNTIES...

AT 1217 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE 
STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS...TO JUST WEST OF 
BRECKENRIDGE...TO CISCO AND EASTLAND...TO RISING STAR. MOVEMENT WAS 
EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EASTLAND...
HARPERSVILLE...GUNSIGHT AND BRECKENRIDGE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION. THIS RAINFALL HAS 
PRODUCED FLOODING IN BRECKENRIDGE AND IN CISCO. ADDITIONALLY... 
RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN 
STEPHENS...AND NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN EASTLAND COUNTY. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO 
FLASH FLOODING.

THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED
ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A COUPLE FEET OF SWIFTLY
FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3210 9912 3221 9872 3279 9864 3280 9905

$$

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 081804
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXC133-429-081900-
STEPHENS TX-EASTLAND TX-
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR WESTERN 
EASTLAND AND STEPHENS COUNTIES...

AT 1256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE 
STORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE...TO CISCO AND 
EASTLAND...TO EAST OF CROSS PLAINS. MOVEMENT WAS SLOWLY EAST.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HARPERSVILLE...GUNSIGHT AND BRECKENRIDGE.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL OVER THE WARNING AREA HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE 
NOON...ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM 
CALLAHAN AND SHACKELFORD COUNTIES. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE AREA.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF 
WILL CAUSE CONTINUED FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... HIGHWAYS AND 
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND 
STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING.

THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED
ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A COUPLE FEET OF SWIFTLY
FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3210 9912 3221 9872 3279 9864 3280 9905

$$

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 081903
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXC133-429-081912-
STEPHENS TX-EASTLAND TX-
202 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN EASTLAND AND STEPHENS 
COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAVE WEAKENED
AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD AREA 
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS STEPHENS AND EASTLAND 
COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SOME CONTINUED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...CREEKS...STREAMS AND 
UNDERPASSES MAY STILL BE OCCURRING. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION 
WHEN TRAVELING IN THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3210 9912 3221 9872 3279 9864 3280 9905

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

.UPDATE..
WILL BE UPDATING POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY AS LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THAT AREA.  ALSO LOWER
MAX TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO ERODE UNTIL MUCH LATER.  COMPLETE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
BE OUT SOON. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ELEVATED SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW.  WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF 6SM -RA IN KACT
TAF BUT JUST VCSH AT METROPLEX SITES WHERE IMPACTS SHOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF ELEVATED THUNDER DEVELOPS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.  ENHANCED LIFT
MAY INCREASE COVERAGE TODAY...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MORE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER LIMITS INSTABILITY.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WOULD RATHER
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON VCTS WITH THE
PROB30 BECOMING TEMPO GROUPS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT AM A LITTLE
WORRIED IT MAY BE INFLUENCED TOO MUCH BY PERSISTENCE.  TR/92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SUNDAYS ACTIVITY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...IN THE FORM A BKN/OVC MIXTURE OF
AS/CI.  HOWEVER...SKIES ARE PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA...WHERE AREAS LIGHT FOG/MIST HAVE FORMED IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING.  SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
ALSO NOTED IN KFWS/KGRK REFLECTIVITY DATA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WE WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...LIKELY BEGINNING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHED.  SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE PROGGED BY LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION.  THE LATEST NAM/NGM/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE IN
LINE WITH SREF OUTPUT...AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE MORE CLOSELY
AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK.  WILL SKEW HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THIS
AREA.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...BUT EXPECT A HIGHER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH/WEST.  OTHERWISE...
THE TREND OF EVENING DISSIPATION AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS
CONDITIONS ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS WILL BE USED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AS INCREASING
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING OF THE MID AND
UPPER-LEVELS...THUS PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON AIRMASS CONVECTION.  THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE
MAINTAINED...BUT LACK OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM.  NONETHELESS...MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHING 100 AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFSLR SOLUTIONS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  75  97  75 /  40  20  30  20
WACO, TX              95  73  94  74 /  50  20  40  20
PARIS, TX             98  70  97  70 /  30  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            97  72  97  72 /  40  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          97  72  97  72 /  40  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            97  75  97  75 /  40  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           97  73  97  73 /  40  20  40  20
CORSICANA, TX         96  73  95  74 /  40  20  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  94  74 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

65/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
500 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
WEAK WIND SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.  OTHERWISE...
ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING ON SOME ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER SETTLES IN LATE
IN THE WEEK.  THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED BETWEEN NOON AND 7
PM.

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
845 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     LIGHTNING        2 SW WATAUGA            32.85N  97.28W
08/07/2005                   TARRANT            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LIGHTNING SPLIT A TREE IN HALF AND CAUSED THE TREE TO
            DESTROY A BENCH IN BUFFALO RIDGE PARK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 AM     LIGHTNING        8 NE GORMAN             32.30N  98.57W
08/08/2005                   EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A TRANSFORMER AND STARTED A FIRE IN
            DESDEMONA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1052 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARLINGTON               32.69N  97.13W
08/06/2005                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            ONE TREE BLOWN OVER.