Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
155 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE EXPECTED OVER PARTICULARLY ERN
PTNS OF N TX AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY...NEGATIVE TILT S/W WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG H7-H5 WIND MAX TO 50 KTS SURGING INTO THIS
REGION. ALSO...H85 DEW PTS 12-15 DEG C COULD LEND TO NOT ONLY
LARGE HAIL AND MORE SFC-BASED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...NE STORM MOTION  30 KTS
SHOULD LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. LOOK FOR SRN S/W TO EJECT
NEWD OUT OF THE CWA BY MID EVENING...YET WE ARE WATCHING
ANOTHER S/W OVER SE TX PANHANDLE WITH NEW CONVECTION THAT COULD
AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MOST...IF NOT
ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER OK/SRN KS.

OTHERWISE...SLY FLOW 10-15 KTS TONIGHT AND DEW PTS TO KEEP THINGS
HUMID OVER N TX. THE SECONDARY S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
MOVE TOWARD KS/NRN OK SATURDAY...WITH THE W TX DRYLINE MEANDERING
EWD IN/TOWARD OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES BY SAT AFTN. DESPITE BRIEF S/W RIDGING
AND SOME CAP...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S NEAR THIS FEATURE.
THUS...INSTABILITIES TO NEAR 2500 J/K AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON W/NW OF THE METROPLEX.
AGAIN...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG CAP WILL BE...BUT IN CASE
STORMS DO GO AND MOVE EAST...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
INTO SUNDAY WITH BOUNDARIES...INSTABILITY...AND STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS NOT QUITE AS HOT SUNDAY...AS THERMAL RIDGE WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT

&&

.LONG TERM...
DIDNT CHANGE MUCH. SHOULD SEE S/W RIDGING WITH MAIN DISTURBANCES
REMAINING OVER THE NORTH AS PREVIOUS FCST/S INDICATE. HOWEVER...
MODELS TRY TO COLLAPSE THE RIDGE EVERY NOW AND THEN AND
ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE TYPE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH OFF AND ON
SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  93  74  91 /  30  10  20  20
WACO, TX              72  94  74  92 /  30  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             70  92  71  90 /  50  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            72  93  73  91 /  30  10  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  93  73  91 /  40  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  93  75  92 /  30  10  20  20
TERRELL, TX           71  93  73  92 /  50  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  74  92 /  50  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  74  93 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA IS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HAMILTON...TO HILLSBORO
AND TERRELL. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALL BE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. ONCE
AGAIN...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS SEABREEZE AND
SHOULD NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

65/DD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
506 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

TXZ158-032300-

BELL-
506 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 506 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FLORENCE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HARKER HEIGHTS...KILLEEN AND
NOLANVILLE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR FROM THIS
STORM...AS IT ENTERS SOUTHWEST BELL COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM CDT.