Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
155 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE EXPECTED OVER PARTICULARLY ERN
PTNS OF N TX AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY...NEGATIVE TILT S/W WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG H7-H5 WIND MAX TO 50 KTS SURGING INTO THIS
REGION. ALSO...H85 DEW PTS 12-15 DEG C COULD LEND TO NOT ONLY
LARGE HAIL AND MORE SFC-BASED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...NE STORM MOTION  30 KTS
SHOULD LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. LOOK FOR SRN S/W TO EJECT
NEWD OUT OF THE CWA BY MID EVENING...YET WE ARE WATCHING
ANOTHER S/W OVER SE TX PANHANDLE WITH NEW CONVECTION THAT COULD
AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MOST...IF NOT
ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER OK/SRN KS.

OTHERWISE...SLY FLOW 10-15 KTS TONIGHT AND DEW PTS TO KEEP THINGS
HUMID OVER N TX. THE SECONDARY S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
MOVE TOWARD KS/NRN OK SATURDAY...WITH THE W TX DRYLINE MEANDERING
EWD IN/TOWARD OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES BY SAT AFTN. DESPITE BRIEF S/W RIDGING
AND SOME CAP...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S NEAR THIS FEATURE.
THUS...INSTABILITIES TO NEAR 2500 J/K AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON W/NW OF THE METROPLEX.
AGAIN...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG CAP WILL BE...BUT IN CASE
STORMS DO GO AND MOVE EAST...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
INTO SUNDAY WITH BOUNDARIES...INSTABILITY...AND STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS NOT QUITE AS HOT SUNDAY...AS THERMAL RIDGE WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT

&&

.LONG TERM...
DIDNT CHANGE MUCH. SHOULD SEE S/W RIDGING WITH MAIN DISTURBANCES
REMAINING OVER THE NORTH AS PREVIOUS FCST/S INDICATE. HOWEVER...
MODELS TRY TO COLLAPSE THE RIDGE EVERY NOW AND THEN AND
ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE TYPE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH OFF AND ON
SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  93  74  91 /  30  10  20  20
WACO, TX              72  94  74  92 /  30  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             70  92  71  90 /  50  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            72  93  73  91 /  30  10  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  93  73  91 /  40  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  93  75  92 /  30  10  20  20
TERRELL, TX           71  93  73  92 /  50  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  74  92 /  50  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  74  93 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
930 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-032300-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
930 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
THIS MORNING...THEN ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LINGERING OVER FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 TODAY...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY
IN PLACE. FURTHER NORTH...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA WILL TEND TO BE MORE
STABLE THAN AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. MOIST SOILS ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS MANY AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS...THUS STREET FLOODING OR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS...DALLAS...
TO PARIS LINE.  THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BEFORE NOON AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

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