Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

October 18, 2005Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 18, 2005, 1:36 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 18, 2005, 1:36 PM MST (20:36 UTC)
Expired: Oct 18, 2005, 2:02 PM MST
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Coconino County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 70 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 739 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 18, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 18, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 6 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...OR HAIL. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY  EXIT THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG EPAC STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION
HAVE MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH REPORTS
OF HEAVY RAIN...FLOWING WASHES...AND NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
12Z SOUNDING SHOWED ADEQUATE VALUES THIS MORNING WITH A CAPE OF 540
AND A HELICITY OF 100. PRECIPITAL WATER OFF SOUNDING WAS 0.56...143
PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE MAIN TREAT FOR FLOODING WILL COME FROM
MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA OR TRAINING AS FAST STORM MOTION
WILL MINIMIZE IMPACT FROM INDIVIDUAL STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 6
PM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BRIEFLY.
EXPECT LOWEST SNOW LEVELS TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AS LOW AS
7000-7500 FEET WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER RANGING FROM 7500-8000 FEET. SYSTEM RAPIDLY EJECTS
TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEATHER SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY ACROSS NRN AZ. EXPECT A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LOW CLOUDS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA UNTIL AROUND
00Z WHEN THEY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ONE MILE AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 30KT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 06Z WED WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MST
FOR ZONES 004>008-015-016-018-037-038.

&&

MAS/BF

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 18, 8:15 AM MST, 5 hours 21 minutes before

PHXWRKHWO DDHHMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 AM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-190700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
815 AM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY
AND TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. FAST STORM MOTION WILL MINIMIZE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM
INDIVIDUAL STORMS BUT WITH REPEATED BANDS OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AS WELL AS SOME TRAINING ECHOES...THERE WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. SEE PRODUCT PHXFFAFGZ
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 18, 12:43 PM MST, 53 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 18, 12:45 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	30 min
Oct 18, 1:15 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	30 min
Oct 18, 1:47 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	28 min
Oct 18, 2:11 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	34 min
Oct 18, 7:05 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila, Yavapai	25 min
Oct 18, 7:27 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila	33 min
Oct 18, 7:28 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	13 min
Oct 18, 10:05 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	15 min
Oct 18, 10:31 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	44 min
Oct 18, 11:46 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	26 min
Oct 18, 12:00 PM MST	Tornado Warning	FGZ	Coconino	11 min
Oct 18, 1:26 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache	42 min
Oct 18, 2:35 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Navajo	38 min
Oct 18, 3:41 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache	25 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.