Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 181902
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1200 PM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

AZC005-025-181915-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-051018T1915Z/
YAVAPAI AZ-COCONINO AZ-
1200 PM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO AND 
EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TORNADO 
WARNING...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO AND EAST 
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WARNING. AT 
1155 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADIC 
SIGNATURE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
SEDONA...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. IF A 
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A 
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3481 11203 3478 11181 3529 11168 3533 11196

$$

STAUDENMAIER

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 181912
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1209 PM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

AZC005-025-181919-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-051018T1915Z/
YAVAPAI AZ-COCONINO AZ-
1209 PM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO AND 
EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE STORM WHICH 
PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WHICH WAS LATER UPDATED TO 
A TORNADO WARNING HAS NOW WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH HEAVY 
RAIN. 

LAT...LON 3481 11203 3478 11181 3529 11168 3533 11196

$$

STAUDENMAIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...OR HAIL. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY  EXIT THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG EPAC STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION
HAVE MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH REPORTS
OF HEAVY RAIN...FLOWING WASHES...AND NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
12Z SOUNDING SHOWED ADEQUATE VALUES THIS MORNING WITH A CAPE OF 540
AND A HELICITY OF 100. PRECIPITAL WATER OFF SOUNDING WAS 0.56...143
PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE MAIN TREAT FOR FLOODING WILL COME FROM
MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA OR TRAINING AS FAST STORM MOTION
WILL MINIMIZE IMPACT FROM INDIVIDUAL STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 6
PM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BRIEFLY.
EXPECT LOWEST SNOW LEVELS TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AS LOW AS
7000-7500 FEET WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER RANGING FROM 7500-8000 FEET. SYSTEM RAPIDLY EJECTS
TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEATHER SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY ACROSS NRN AZ. EXPECT A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LOW CLOUDS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA UNTIL AROUND
00Z WHEN THEY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ONE MILE AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 30KT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 06Z WED WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MST
FOR ZONES 004>008-015-016-018-037-038.

&&

MAS/BF

PHXWRKHWO DDHHMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 AM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-190700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
815 AM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY
AND TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. FAST STORM MOTION WILL MINIMIZE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM
INDIVIDUAL STORMS BUT WITH REPEATED BANDS OF CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AS WELL AS SOME TRAINING ECHOES...THERE WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. SEE PRODUCT PHXFFAFGZ
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
734 AM MST TUE OCT 18 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     HAIL             5 W FLAGSTAFF           35.19N 111.71W
10/18/2005  0.75 INCH        COCONINO           AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

TOMC