Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 261405
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
905 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

NDC003-073-261430-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-050626T1430Z/
BARNES ND-RANSOM ND-
905 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR
RANSOM AND EASTERN BARNES COUNTIES...

AT 903 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE STORM
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NOME...OR 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHELDON AND ANSELM BY 925 AM CDT...
  7 MILES NORTH OF VENLO BY 930 AM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4666 9807 4633 9800 4632 9736 4660 9731
      4661 9769 4713 9776 4712 9812

$$

BRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 261432
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
932 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

NDC003-073-261445-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-050626T1430Z/
BARNES ND-RANSOM ND-
932 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RANSOM AND EASTERN BARNES
COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 930 AM CDT...

AT 929 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF SHELDON...OR 32 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. SO
THE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 930 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4666 9807 4633 9800 4632 9736 4660 9731
      4661 9769 4713 9776 4712 9812

$$

BRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL
   DURING NEXT FEW DAYS...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
MT WITH GOOD PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET EVIDENT FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO
MB PROVINCE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION
WORKING EAST FROM WESTERN ND. ACTIVITY FIRING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN A RICH
THETA-E RIDGE ENVIRONMENT/COUPLED WITH ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER SD.

.SHORT TERM...
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
EASTWARD ADVANCING LINE OF CONVECTION OUT WEST WORKING INTO NW/NE PORTION
OF CWFA THIS MORNING. MODELS PROJECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP TODAY
OVER CWFA AS UPSTREAM BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
REGION. BASED ON THIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE VALLEY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WORKING EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA LATE. TONIGHT WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY/COUPLED WITH POTENT VORTICITY
MAXIMA EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN LINGERING SEVERE STORM THREAT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. ON MONDAY
AS LOW CENTER RIDES INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE EXPECT BOUNDARY TO SAG TO THE
SOUTH WITH LINGERING POP THREAT CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BRIEF RESPITE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS MEAN 500MB TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO REGION.
BASED ON CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HOLD
OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND ISSUE UPDATED ESF. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...ESF ALL AREAS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MN...ESF ALL AREAS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
     RIVER FLOOD WARNING AT OSLO.

&&

BERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
650 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-271149-
BARNES ND-BENSON ND-CASS ND-CAVALIER ND-CLAY MN-EAST BECKER MN-
EAST MARSHALL MN-EAST OTTER TAIL MN-EAST POLK MN-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-EDDY ND-GRAND FORKS ND-GRANT MN-GRIGGS ND-
HUBBARD MN-KITTSON MN-LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-MAHNOMEN MN-NELSON ND-
NORMAN MN-NORTH BELTRAMI MN-NORTH CLEARWATER MN-PEMBINA ND-
PENNINGTON MN-RAMSEY ND-RANSOM ND-RED LAKE MN-RICHLAND ND-ROSEAU MN-
SARGENT ND-SOUTH BELTRAMI MN-SOUTH CLEARWATER MN-STEELE ND-TOWNER ND-
TRAILL ND-WADENA MN-WEST BECKER MN-WEST MARSHALL MN-
WEST OTTER TAIL MN-WEST POLK MN-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-WILKIN MN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEMIDJI...DETROIT LAKES...DEVILS LAKE...
FARGO...FERGUS FALLS...GRAFTON...GRAND FORKS...LANGDON...ROSEAU...
THIEF RIVER FALLS...VALLEY CITY AND WAHPETON
650 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4PM AND MIDNIGHT. ANY SEVERE STORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINS. IN ADDITION AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE ONSET OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF A NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LINE. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE ONCE AGAIN LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEPOSIT VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO SATURATED
GROUNDS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

BERG